Skip to main content
icon for Next Claude Haiku released by...?
Tech·AI Releases

Next Claude Haiku released by...?

icon for Next Claude Haiku released by...?
Tech·AI Releases

Next Claude Haiku released by...?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

NEW
Aug 31, 2026
Polymarket

$6,864 Vol.

Polymarket

August 31

$1,762 Vol.

27%

October 31

$903 Vol.

56%

December 31

$4,199 Vol.

59%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s most recent Haiku model, Claude Haiku 4.5, launched on October 15, 2025, and remains the current lightweight tier despite the subsequent releases of Claude Sonnet 5 (June 2026), Opus 5 (July 2026), and Fable 5. Historical patterns show Haiku updates lagging flagship models, with skips for several 4.x minor revisions and deprecation of prior Haiku 3 and 3.5 variants earlier in 2026. This gap, combined with Anthropic’s accelerated 2026 release cadence across larger models and emphasis on agentic and coding capabilities that Haiku 4.5 partially inherits, drives trader focus on whether a next-generation Haiku (likely 5.x) appears by late 2026 or into 2027. No official timeline or teaser has surfaced, leaving resolution sensitive to Anthropic’s next developer conference or API update.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.

The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,864
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 6:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s most recent Haiku model, Claude Haiku 4.5, launched on October 15, 2025, and remains the current lightweight tier despite the subsequent releases of Claude Sonnet 5 (June 2026), Opus 5 (July 2026), and Fable 5. Historical patterns show Haiku updates lagging flagship models, with skips for several 4.x minor revisions and deprecation of prior Haiku 3 and 3.5 variants earlier in 2026. This gap, combined with Anthropic’s accelerated 2026 release cadence across larger models and emphasis on agentic and coding capabilities that Haiku 4.5 partially inherits, drives trader focus on whether a next-generation Haiku (likely 5.x) appears by late 2026 or into 2027. No official timeline or teaser has surfaced, leaving resolution sensitive to Anthropic’s next developer conference or API update.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.

The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,864
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 6:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Related

icon for Will the next Claude Opus model be released by December 31, 2026?

Will the next Claude Opus model be released by December 31, 2026?

96%
icon for Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by December 31, 2026?

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by December 31, 2026?

84%
icon for Next Mythos-Class Model released by October 31, 2026?

Next Mythos-Class Model released by October 31, 2026?

86%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Claude Haiku released by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 59%, followed by "October 31" at 56%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 59¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Next Claude Haiku released by...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Next Claude Haiku released by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Claude Haiku released by...?" is "December 31" at 59%, meaning the market assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "October 31" at 56%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Claude Haiku released by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.