The August 18, 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary produced certified results placing James Fishback at roughly 10.5 percent of the vote, confirming the 10–15 percent outcome as the near-certain resolution in the market. Byron Donalds secured the nomination with a commanding lead near 48 percent, backed by strong polling throughout the cycle, fundraising advantages, and high-profile endorsements that consolidated establishment and broader Republican support. Fishback, running as an outsider focused on affordability, property taxes, and immigration enforcement, drew limited but visible backing among younger voters and online networks, yet remained a distant third behind both Donalds and Lt. Gov. Jay Collins at 25 percent. A residency challenge filed against Fishback was resolved in his favor prior to the vote, allowing him to stay on the ballot but not materially shifting his positioning. With nearly all ballots counted and consistent tallies across reporting, only unresolved certification disputes or major tabulation revisions would alter the final share enough to move probabilities away from the current consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJames Fishback vote share in 2026 Florida Republican Governor Primary?
James Fishback vote share in 2026 Florida Republican Governor Primary?
Fishback 10–15% 98.8%
Fishback 25–30% <1%
Fishback 30%+ <1%
Fishback <10% <1%
$344,202 Vol.
$344,202 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
Fishback <10%
<1%
Fishback 10–15%
99%
Fishback 15–20%
<1%
Fishback 20–25%
<1%
Fishback 25–30%
1%
Fishback 30%+
<1%
Fishback 10–15% 98.8%
Fishback 25–30% <1%
Fishback 30%+ <1%
Fishback <10% <1%
$344,202 Vol.
$344,202 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
Fishback <10%
$249,783 Vol.
<1%
Fishback 10–15%
$24,477 Vol.
99%
Fishback 15–20%
$13,551 Vol.
<1%
Fishback 20–25%
$17,341 Vol.
<1%
Fishback 25–30%
$10,466 Vol.
1%
Fishback 30%+
$28,583 Vol.
<1%
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The August 18, 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary produced certified results placing James Fishback at roughly 10.5 percent of the vote, confirming the 10–15 percent outcome as the near-certain resolution in the market. Byron Donalds secured the nomination with a commanding lead near 48 percent, backed by strong polling throughout the cycle, fundraising advantages, and high-profile endorsements that consolidated establishment and broader Republican support. Fishback, running as an outsider focused on affordability, property taxes, and immigration enforcement, drew limited but visible backing among younger voters and online networks, yet remained a distant third behind both Donalds and Lt. Gov. Jay Collins at 25 percent. A residency challenge filed against Fishback was resolved in his favor prior to the vote, allowing him to stay on the ballot but not materially shifting his positioning. With nearly all ballots counted and consistent tallies across reporting, only unresolved certification disputes or major tabulation revisions would alter the final share enough to move probabilities away from the current consensus.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 5:46 PM ET
Volume
$344,202End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The August 18, 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary produced certified results placing James Fishback at roughly 10.5 percent of the vote, confirming the 10–15 percent outcome as the near-certain resolution in the market. Byron Donalds secured the nomination with a commanding lead near 48 percent, backed by strong polling throughout the cycle, fundraising advantages, and high-profile endorsements that consolidated establishment and broader Republican support. Fishback, running as an outsider focused on affordability, property taxes, and immigration enforcement, drew limited but visible backing among younger voters and online networks, yet remained a distant third behind both Donalds and Lt. Gov. Jay Collins at 25 percent. A residency challenge filed against Fishback was resolved in his favor prior to the vote, allowing him to stay on the ballot but not materially shifting his positioning. With nearly all ballots counted and consistent tallies across reporting, only unresolved certification disputes or major tabulation revisions would alter the final share enough to move probabilities away from the current consensus.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$344,202End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The August 18, 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary produced certified results placing James Fishback at roughly 10.5 percent of the vote, confirming the 10–15 percent outcome as the near-certain resolution in the market. Byron Donalds secured the nomination with a commanding lead near 48 percent, backed by strong polling throughout the cycle, fundraising advantages, and high-profile endorsements that consolidated establishment and broader Republican support. Fishback, running as an outsider focused on affordability, property taxes, and immigration enforcement, drew limited but visible backing among younger voters and online networks, yet remained a distant third behind both Donalds and Lt. Gov. Jay Collins at 25 percent. A residency challenge filed against Fishback was resolved in his favor prior to the vote, allowing him to stay on the ballot but not materially shifting his positioning. With nearly all ballots counted and consistent tallies across reporting, only unresolved certification disputes or major tabulation revisions would alter the final share enough to move probabilities away from the current consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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