U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February–March 2026 targeted Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, damaging entrances, infrastructure, and access to stockpiles of uranium enriched to 60 percent. IAEA assessments through mid-2026 report no major resumption of enrichment activity, with much of the material described as buried or inaccessible. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding reaffirmed Tehran’s commitment against developing nuclear weapons, amid ongoing diplomatic channels and sanctions discussions. These developments have constrained near-term breakout capacity, supporting trader consensus reflected in the 95 percent probability assigned to “No” for acquisition before 2027, though verification gaps and potential reconstruction efforts remain factors.