Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged enrichment infrastructure and limited access to stockpiles, with IAEA assessments confirming restricted monitoring and materials described as largely inaccessible or under rubble. U.S. intelligence estimates place Iran's current breakout timeline for weapons-grade uranium and weaponization at nine to twelve months or longer, extended by prior damage and halted enrichment activity. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations produced a June 2026 memorandum of understanding in which Iran reaffirmed it would not pursue nuclear weapons, alongside commitments on inspections, uranium dilution, and sanctions relief. IAEA reports through June 2026 noted minimal program changes amid limited verification, supporting trader consensus that these combined military degradation and diplomatic constraints make acquisition before 2027 highly unlikely.