Iranian politics in mid-2026 centers on fragile post-war power consolidation after the February 2026 conflict that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompted a U.S.-Israel ceasefire. Hardliners have publicly accused moderates including Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Masoud Pezeshkian of plotting a coup tied to succession questions involving Mojtaba Khamenei, intensifying factional tensions as reported in July. Persistent economic sanctions, currency weakness, and localized protests over living costs raise risks of broader unrest that could either destabilize the regime or prompt preemptive security measures by the IRGC and Basij. No confirmed coup attempt has materialized, but trader sentiment tracks these succession disputes, truce fragility, and domestic pressure points that historically precede leadership challenges in Tehran.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,122,908 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
9%
$2,122,908 Vol.
December 31
$81,682 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iranian politics in mid-2026 centers on fragile post-war power consolidation after the February 2026 conflict that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompted a U.S.-Israel ceasefire. Hardliners have publicly accused moderates including Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Masoud Pezeshkian of plotting a coup tied to succession questions involving Mojtaba Khamenei, intensifying factional tensions as reported in July. Persistent economic sanctions, currency weakness, and localized protests over living costs raise risks of broader unrest that could either destabilize the regime or prompt preemptive security measures by the IRGC and Basij. No confirmed coup attempt has materialized, but trader sentiment tracks these succession disputes, truce fragility, and domestic pressure points that historically precede leadership challenges in Tehran.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,122,908End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iranian politics in mid-2026 centers on fragile post-war power consolidation after the February 2026 conflict that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompted a U.S.-Israel ceasefire. Hardliners have publicly accused moderates including Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Masoud Pezeshkian of plotting a coup tied to succession questions involving Mojtaba Khamenei, intensifying factional tensions as reported in July. Persistent economic sanctions, currency weakness, and localized protests over living costs raise risks of broader unrest that could either destabilize the regime or prompt preemptive security measures by the IRGC and Basij. No confirmed coup attempt has materialized, but trader sentiment tracks these succession disputes, truce fragility, and domestic pressure points that historically precede leadership challenges in Tehran.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,122,908End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iranian politics in mid-2026 centers on fragile post-war power consolidation after the February 2026 conflict that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompted a U.S.-Israel ceasefire. Hardliners have publicly accused moderates including Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Masoud Pezeshkian of plotting a coup tied to succession questions involving Mojtaba Khamenei, intensifying factional tensions as reported in July. Persistent economic sanctions, currency weakness, and localized protests over living costs raise risks of broader unrest that could either destabilize the regime or prompt preemptive security measures by the IRGC and Basij. No confirmed coup attempt has materialized, but trader sentiment tracks these succession disputes, truce fragility, and domestic pressure points that historically precede leadership challenges in Tehran.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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