Russia's political system under President Vladimir Putin has shown sustained stability through mid-2026, with no verified coup attempt despite earlier intelligence reports of heightened Kremlin security measures and elite concerns from March to May. Military command reshuffles, including logistics and unmanned systems leadership changes in August, reflect ongoing efforts to maintain loyalty and address wartime performance without signs of organized internal revolt. Trader consensus at 93.5% against a 2026 attempt aligns with the regime's coup-proofing structures, limited elite coordination capacity, and diversion of attention to the Ukraine conflict, where Russian forces continue territorial operations and infrastructure defenses. No major defections or public challenges have emerged in recent months to alter this positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
$126,306 Vol.
$126,306 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
7% chance
$126,306 Vol.
$126,306 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's political system under President Vladimir Putin has shown sustained stability through mid-2026, with no verified coup attempt despite earlier intelligence reports of heightened Kremlin security measures and elite concerns from March to May. Military command reshuffles, including logistics and unmanned systems leadership changes in August, reflect ongoing efforts to maintain loyalty and address wartime performance without signs of organized internal revolt. Trader consensus at 93.5% against a 2026 attempt aligns with the regime's coup-proofing structures, limited elite coordination capacity, and diversion of attention to the Ukraine conflict, where Russian forces continue territorial operations and infrastructure defenses. No major defections or public challenges have emerged in recent months to alter this positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volume
$126,306End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's political system under President Vladimir Putin has shown sustained stability through mid-2026, with no verified coup attempt despite earlier intelligence reports of heightened Kremlin security measures and elite concerns from March to May. Military command reshuffles, including logistics and unmanned systems leadership changes in August, reflect ongoing efforts to maintain loyalty and address wartime performance without signs of organized internal revolt. Trader consensus at 93.5% against a 2026 attempt aligns with the regime's coup-proofing structures, limited elite coordination capacity, and diversion of attention to the Ukraine conflict, where Russian forces continue territorial operations and infrastructure defenses. No major defections or public challenges have emerged in recent months to alter this positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$126,306End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's political system under President Vladimir Putin has shown sustained stability through mid-2026, with no verified coup attempt despite earlier intelligence reports of heightened Kremlin security measures and elite concerns from March to May. Military command reshuffles, including logistics and unmanned systems leadership changes in August, reflect ongoing efforts to maintain loyalty and address wartime performance without signs of organized internal revolt. Trader consensus at 93.5% against a 2026 attempt aligns with the regime's coup-proofing structures, limited elite coordination capacity, and diversion of attention to the Ukraine conflict, where Russian forces continue territorial operations and infrastructure defenses. No major defections or public challenges have emerged in recent months to alter this positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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