Xi Jinping's consolidation of authority through repeated military purges, including the January 2026 investigations targeting senior PLA figures such as General Zhang Youxia, has reinforced trader expectations that no coup attempt will materialize before 2027. The Chinese Communist Party's centralized structures, anti-corruption mechanisms, and control over elite factions limit organized challenges, with official accounts framing recent leadership shifts as loyalty enforcement rather than instability. This dynamic sustains the 96% implied probability for "No." Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include abrupt health developments affecting top leaders, severe economic pressures fracturing elite consensus ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, or unforeseen external shocks testing institutional cohesion.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
$155,163 Vol.
$155,163 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
4% chance
$155,163 Vol.
$155,163 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping's consolidation of authority through repeated military purges, including the January 2026 investigations targeting senior PLA figures such as General Zhang Youxia, has reinforced trader expectations that no coup attempt will materialize before 2027. The Chinese Communist Party's centralized structures, anti-corruption mechanisms, and control over elite factions limit organized challenges, with official accounts framing recent leadership shifts as loyalty enforcement rather than instability. This dynamic sustains the 96% implied probability for "No." Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include abrupt health developments affecting top leaders, severe economic pressures fracturing elite consensus ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, or unforeseen external shocks testing institutional cohesion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$155,163End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping's consolidation of authority through repeated military purges, including the January 2026 investigations targeting senior PLA figures such as General Zhang Youxia, has reinforced trader expectations that no coup attempt will materialize before 2027. The Chinese Communist Party's centralized structures, anti-corruption mechanisms, and control over elite factions limit organized challenges, with official accounts framing recent leadership shifts as loyalty enforcement rather than instability. This dynamic sustains the 96% implied probability for "No." Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include abrupt health developments affecting top leaders, severe economic pressures fracturing elite consensus ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, or unforeseen external shocks testing institutional cohesion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$155,163End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping's consolidation of authority through repeated military purges, including the January 2026 investigations targeting senior PLA figures such as General Zhang Youxia, has reinforced trader expectations that no coup attempt will materialize before 2027. The Chinese Communist Party's centralized structures, anti-corruption mechanisms, and control over elite factions limit organized challenges, with official accounts framing recent leadership shifts as loyalty enforcement rather than instability. This dynamic sustains the 96% implied probability for "No." Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include abrupt health developments affecting top leaders, severe economic pressures fracturing elite consensus ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, or unforeseen external shocks testing institutional cohesion.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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