Iranian authorities have restricted IAEA access to the Isfahan, Fordow, and Natanz enrichment sites since US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and additional attacks in February 2026, preventing verification of highly enriched uranium stocks and facility status. An interim US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed in June 2026 explicitly provides for IAEA supervision of nuclear activities, prompting Director General Rafael Grossi to state that inspections would occur soon and that modalities were under discussion. Iranian officials have countered that visits to damaged sites require a new protocol, parliamentary legislation, site security measures, and progress toward a final agreement including sanctions relief, with no such access currently scheduled. IAEA monitoring continues only at unaffected locations such as Bushehr under existing safeguards, while satellite imagery shows activity at the tunnel complex at Isfahan and damage elsewhere. Any near-term visits hinge on advancement in bilateral talks amid the unresolved 60-day negotiation window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
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Dec 31, 2026
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December 31
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.Iranian authorities have restricted IAEA access to the Isfahan, Fordow, and Natanz enrichment sites since US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and additional attacks in February 2026, preventing verification of highly enriched uranium stocks and facility status. An interim US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed in June 2026 explicitly provides for IAEA supervision of nuclear activities, prompting Director General Rafael Grossi to state that inspections would occur soon and that modalities were under discussion. Iranian officials have countered that visits to damaged sites require a new protocol, parliamentary legislation, site security measures, and progress toward a final agreement including sanctions relief, with no such access currently scheduled. IAEA monitoring continues only at unaffected locations such as Bushehr under existing safeguards, while satellite imagery shows activity at the tunnel complex at Isfahan and damage elsewhere. Any near-term visits hinge on advancement in bilateral talks amid the unresolved 60-day negotiation window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$368,282End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.Iranian authorities have restricted IAEA access to the Isfahan, Fordow, and Natanz enrichment sites since US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and additional attacks in February 2026, preventing verification of highly enriched uranium stocks and facility status. An interim US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed in June 2026 explicitly provides for IAEA supervision of nuclear activities, prompting Director General Rafael Grossi to state that inspections would occur soon and that modalities were under discussion. Iranian officials have countered that visits to damaged sites require a new protocol, parliamentary legislation, site security measures, and progress toward a final agreement including sanctions relief, with no such access currently scheduled. IAEA monitoring continues only at unaffected locations such as Bushehr under existing safeguards, while satellite imagery shows activity at the tunnel complex at Isfahan and damage elsewhere. Any near-term visits hinge on advancement in bilateral talks amid the unresolved 60-day negotiation window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$368,282End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iranian authorities have restricted IAEA access to the Isfahan, Fordow, and Natanz enrichment sites since US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and additional attacks in February 2026, preventing verification of highly enriched uranium stocks and facility status. An interim US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed in June 2026 explicitly provides for IAEA supervision of nuclear activities, prompting Director General Rafael Grossi to state that inspections would occur soon and that modalities were under discussion. Iranian officials have countered that visits to damaged sites require a new protocol, parliamentary legislation, site security measures, and progress toward a final agreement including sanctions relief, with no such access currently scheduled. IAEA monitoring continues only at unaffected locations such as Bushehr under existing safeguards, while satellite imagery shows activity at the tunnel complex at Isfahan and damage elsewhere. Any near-term visits hinge on advancement in bilateral talks amid the unresolved 60-day negotiation window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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