Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including active mine hazards, projectile attacks on vessels, and war-risk insurance premiums at multiples of normal levels, have suppressed commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit daily levels in recent weeks. Data from sources like IMF PortWatch and Lloyd’s List show weekly totals well below 150 amid rerouting by major carriers and a de facto blockade dynamic, aligning trader consensus with the 25-49 outcome at 90.5% implied probability. This reflects aggregated capital-weighted sentiment on sustained disruption rather than a full reopening. A verifiable diplomatic breakthrough, such as finalized Iran-Oman corridor terms with insurer acceptance of cleared lanes, or a sharp drop in incidents could push volumes higher and challenge the current pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24?
25-49 91%
<25 8%
50-74 2.8%
100+ <1%
$12,598 Vol.
$12,598 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<25
8%
25-49
91%
50-74
3%
75-99
1%
100+
1%
25-49 91%
<25 8%
50-74 2.8%
100+ <1%
$12,598 Vol.
$12,598 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<25
$5,111 Vol.
8%
25-49
$3,903 Vol.
91%
50-74
$1,215 Vol.
3%
75-99
$956 Vol.
1%
100+
$1,413 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including active mine hazards, projectile attacks on vessels, and war-risk insurance premiums at multiples of normal levels, have suppressed commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit daily levels in recent weeks. Data from sources like IMF PortWatch and Lloyd’s List show weekly totals well below 150 amid rerouting by major carriers and a de facto blockade dynamic, aligning trader consensus with the 25-49 outcome at 90.5% implied probability. This reflects aggregated capital-weighted sentiment on sustained disruption rather than a full reopening. A verifiable diplomatic breakthrough, such as finalized Iran-Oman corridor terms with insurer acceptance of cleared lanes, or a sharp drop in incidents could push volumes higher and challenge the current pricing.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ET
Volume
$12,598End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including active mine hazards, projectile attacks on vessels, and war-risk insurance premiums at multiples of normal levels, have suppressed commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit daily levels in recent weeks. Data from sources like IMF PortWatch and Lloyd’s List show weekly totals well below 150 amid rerouting by major carriers and a de facto blockade dynamic, aligning trader consensus with the 25-49 outcome at 90.5% implied probability. This reflects aggregated capital-weighted sentiment on sustained disruption rather than a full reopening. A verifiable diplomatic breakthrough, such as finalized Iran-Oman corridor terms with insurer acceptance of cleared lanes, or a sharp drop in incidents could push volumes higher and challenge the current pricing.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$12,598End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including active mine hazards, projectile attacks on vessels, and war-risk insurance premiums at multiples of normal levels, have suppressed commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit daily levels in recent weeks. Data from sources like IMF PortWatch and Lloyd’s List show weekly totals well below 150 amid rerouting by major carriers and a de facto blockade dynamic, aligning trader consensus with the 25-49 outcome at 90.5% implied probability. This reflects aggregated capital-weighted sentiment on sustained disruption rather than a full reopening. A verifiable diplomatic breakthrough, such as finalized Iran-Oman corridor terms with insurer acceptance of cleared lanes, or a sharp drop in incidents could push volumes higher and challenge the current pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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