**Trader sentiment for Bab el-Mandeb transits in the week of August 24, 2026, reflects a narrow contest between 180-199 and 200-219 ships amid ongoing but contained regional risks.** Recent MarineTraffic and Kpler data show weekly crossings near 223–269 (with daily readings of 36–39 on August 24–25), up modestly week-over-week as containership, bulker, and some tanker volumes recover, though still roughly 40% below pre-Houthi baselines. Elevated war-risk premiums (0.20–1%+ of hull value for southern Red Sea calls) and $50–100/TEU surcharges continue to shape routing decisions, prompting selective returns by operators like Maersk and MSC while many tankers favor longer Cape routes. Persistent Houthi targeting of Saudi-linked tonnage since the July 20 blockade declaration has narrowed the commercial mix—favoring ballast, sanctioned, and shadow-fleet movements—yet no fresh attacks in the immediate period and incremental Suez recovery have supported the higher end of recent ranges. Differentiating factors include the pace of any further de-escalation versus renewed threats, AIS visibility gaps from dark transits, and shifts in the laden-to-ballast ratio that affect total counts. These elements keep the two leading bins closely matched as traders weigh security-driven caution against gradual normalization signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 24?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 24?
180-199 36%
200-219 31%
220+ 18%
160-179 13%
$16,976 Vol.
$16,976 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<160
5%
160-179
13%
180-199
36%
200-219
31%
220+
18%
180-199 36%
200-219 31%
220+ 18%
160-179 13%
$16,976 Vol.
$16,976 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<160
$203 Vol.
5%
160-179
$202 Vol.
13%
180-199
$431 Vol.
36%
200-219
$14,098 Vol.
31%
220+
$2,042 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Trader sentiment for Bab el-Mandeb transits in the week of August 24, 2026, reflects a narrow contest between 180-199 and 200-219 ships amid ongoing but contained regional risks.** Recent MarineTraffic and Kpler data show weekly crossings near 223–269 (with daily readings of 36–39 on August 24–25), up modestly week-over-week as containership, bulker, and some tanker volumes recover, though still roughly 40% below pre-Houthi baselines.
Elevated war-risk premiums (0.20–1%+ of hull value for southern Red Sea calls) and $50–100/TEU surcharges continue to shape routing decisions, prompting selective returns by operators like Maersk and MSC while many tankers favor longer Cape routes. Persistent Houthi targeting of Saudi-linked tonnage since the July 20 blockade declaration has narrowed the commercial mix—favoring ballast, sanctioned, and shadow-fleet movements—yet no fresh attacks in the immediate period and incremental Suez recovery have supported the higher end of recent ranges.
Differentiating factors include the pace of any further de-escalation versus renewed threats, AIS visibility gaps from dark transits, and shifts in the laden-to-ballast ratio that affect total counts. These elements keep the two leading bins closely matched as traders weigh security-driven caution against gradual normalization signals.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Volume
$16,976End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Trader sentiment for Bab el-Mandeb transits in the week of August 24, 2026, reflects a narrow contest between 180-199 and 200-219 ships amid ongoing but contained regional risks.** Recent MarineTraffic and Kpler data show weekly crossings near 223–269 (with daily readings of 36–39 on August 24–25), up modestly week-over-week as containership, bulker, and some tanker volumes recover, though still roughly 40% below pre-Houthi baselines.
Elevated war-risk premiums (0.20–1%+ of hull value for southern Red Sea calls) and $50–100/TEU surcharges continue to shape routing decisions, prompting selective returns by operators like Maersk and MSC while many tankers favor longer Cape routes. Persistent Houthi targeting of Saudi-linked tonnage since the July 20 blockade declaration has narrowed the commercial mix—favoring ballast, sanctioned, and shadow-fleet movements—yet no fresh attacks in the immediate period and incremental Suez recovery have supported the higher end of recent ranges.
Differentiating factors include the pace of any further de-escalation versus renewed threats, AIS visibility gaps from dark transits, and shifts in the laden-to-ballast ratio that affect total counts. These elements keep the two leading bins closely matched as traders weigh security-driven caution against gradual normalization signals.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$16,976End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Bab el-Mandeb transits in the week of August 24, 2026, reflects a narrow contest between 180-199 and 200-219 ships amid ongoing but contained regional risks.** Recent MarineTraffic and Kpler data show weekly crossings near 223–269 (with daily readings of 36–39 on August 24–25), up modestly week-over-week as containership, bulker, and some tanker volumes recover, though still roughly 40% below pre-Houthi baselines. Elevated war-risk premiums (0.20–1%+ of hull value for southern Red Sea calls) and $50–100/TEU surcharges continue to shape routing decisions, prompting selective returns by operators like Maersk and MSC while many tankers favor longer Cape routes. Persistent Houthi targeting of Saudi-linked tonnage since the July 20 blockade declaration has narrowed the commercial mix—favoring ballast, sanctioned, and shadow-fleet movements—yet no fresh attacks in the immediate period and incremental Suez recovery have supported the higher end of recent ranges. Differentiating factors include the pace of any further de-escalation versus renewed threats, AIS visibility gaps from dark transits, and shifts in the laden-to-ballast ratio that affect total counts. These elements keep the two leading bins closely matched as traders weigh security-driven caution against gradual normalization signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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