Persistent Houthi attacks targeting Saudi-linked tankers since the July 20 blockade declaration have driven selective rerouting and reduced tanker volumes through Bab el-Mandeb, elevating war-risk premiums above 1% of hull value and compressing compliant traffic. Recent data show weekly transits stabilizing near 266–269 amid mixed daily counts of 36–46 vessels, with containers proving more resilient than crude flows. The close market-implied odds between 180–199 and 200–219 reflect uncertainty over whether ongoing incidents, such as the August 24 strike on the Bahri VLCC Amzan, will trigger further avoidance or allow modest recovery ahead of resolution. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, prices in these security-driven frictions rather than a return to pre-crisis norms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 24?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 24?
180-199 36%
200-219 31%
220+ 18%
160-179 13%
$16,976 Vol.
$16,976 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<160
6%
160-179
13%
180-199
36%
200-219
31%
220+
18%
180-199 36%
200-219 31%
220+ 18%
160-179 13%
$16,976 Vol.
$16,976 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<160
$203 Vol.
6%
160-179
$202 Vol.
13%
180-199
$431 Vol.
36%
200-219
$14,098 Vol.
31%
220+
$2,042 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Persistent Houthi attacks targeting Saudi-linked tankers since the July 20 blockade declaration have driven selective rerouting and reduced tanker volumes through Bab el-Mandeb, elevating war-risk premiums above 1% of hull value and compressing compliant traffic. Recent data show weekly transits stabilizing near 266–269 amid mixed daily counts of 36–46 vessels, with containers proving more resilient than crude flows. The close market-implied odds between 180–199 and 200–219 reflect uncertainty over whether ongoing incidents, such as the August 24 strike on the Bahri VLCC Amzan, will trigger further avoidance or allow modest recovery ahead of resolution. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, prices in these security-driven frictions rather than a return to pre-crisis norms.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Volume
$16,976End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Persistent Houthi attacks targeting Saudi-linked tankers since the July 20 blockade declaration have driven selective rerouting and reduced tanker volumes through Bab el-Mandeb, elevating war-risk premiums above 1% of hull value and compressing compliant traffic. Recent data show weekly transits stabilizing near 266–269 amid mixed daily counts of 36–46 vessels, with containers proving more resilient than crude flows. The close market-implied odds between 180–199 and 200–219 reflect uncertainty over whether ongoing incidents, such as the August 24 strike on the Bahri VLCC Amzan, will trigger further avoidance or allow modest recovery ahead of resolution. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, prices in these security-driven frictions rather than a return to pre-crisis norms.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$16,976End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent Houthi attacks targeting Saudi-linked tankers since the July 20 blockade declaration have driven selective rerouting and reduced tanker volumes through Bab el-Mandeb, elevating war-risk premiums above 1% of hull value and compressing compliant traffic. Recent data show weekly transits stabilizing near 266–269 amid mixed daily counts of 36–46 vessels, with containers proving more resilient than crude flows. The close market-implied odds between 180–199 and 200–219 reflect uncertainty over whether ongoing incidents, such as the August 24 strike on the Bahri VLCC Amzan, will trigger further avoidance or allow modest recovery ahead of resolution. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, prices in these security-driven frictions rather than a return to pre-crisis norms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions