Israel’s 26th Knesset election on 27 October 2026 follows the automatic dissolution of the prior legislature on 17 July after a full term. Traders assign 77% probability to a government forming after this single round because the proportional-representation system and 61-seat threshold have historically produced workable coalitions once votes are tallied, even amid fragmentation. Recent polling shows Likud competitive with opposition lists such as Bennett-Lapid’s Together and Eisenkot’s Yashar, while right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties remain near the threshold; these dynamics imply post-election bargaining among Zionist parties can reach a majority without Arab factions. The 21.5% chance assigned to two elections reflects residual uncertainty over coalition arithmetic and potential Haredi-draft or security-policy sticking points that could trigger renewed deadlock, consistent with past cycles. No developments since July have altered the scheduled timeline or introduced immediate barriers to negotiation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1 77%
2 22%
3 2.9%
4 <1%
$16,620 Vol.
$16,620 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
0
<1%
1
77%
2
22%
3
3%
4
<1%
5+
<1%
1 77%
2 22%
3 2.9%
4 <1%
$16,620 Vol.
$16,620 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
0
$575 Vol.
<1%
1
$10,878 Vol.
77%
2
$2,644 Vol.
22%
3
$1,304 Vol.
3%
4
$588 Vol.
<1%
5+
$632 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of Israeli legislative elections that occur between market creation and the formation of a government in the Knesset or December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes earlier.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of elections that occur, where occurrence is defined as nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel. Publication of an election’s results will have no bearing on this market.
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the dates of general election-day voting will count.
A government will be considered formed if it passes a vote of confidence in the Knesset.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel’s 26th Knesset election on 27 October 2026 follows the automatic dissolution of the prior legislature on 17 July after a full term. Traders assign 77% probability to a government forming after this single round because the proportional-representation system and 61-seat threshold have historically produced workable coalitions once votes are tallied, even amid fragmentation. Recent polling shows Likud competitive with opposition lists such as Bennett-Lapid’s Together and Eisenkot’s Yashar, while right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties remain near the threshold; these dynamics imply post-election bargaining among Zionist parties can reach a majority without Arab factions. The 21.5% chance assigned to two elections reflects residual uncertainty over coalition arithmetic and potential Haredi-draft or security-policy sticking points that could trigger renewed deadlock, consistent with past cycles. No developments since July have altered the scheduled timeline or introduced immediate barriers to negotiation.
This market will resolve according to the number of Israeli legislative elections that occur between market creation and the formation of a government in the Knesset or December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes earlier.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of elections that occur, where occurrence is defined as nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel. Publication of an election’s results will have no bearing on this market.
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the dates of general election-day voting will count.
A government will be considered formed if it passes a vote of confidence in the Knesset.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of elections that occur, where occurrence is defined as nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel. Publication of an election’s results will have no bearing on this market.
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the dates of general election-day voting will count.
A government will be considered formed if it passes a vote of confidence in the Knesset.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 6:10 PM ET
Volume
$16,620End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of Israeli legislative elections that occur between market creation and the formation of a government in the Knesset or December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes earlier.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of elections that occur, where occurrence is defined as nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel. Publication of an election’s results will have no bearing on this market.
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the dates of general election-day voting will count.
A government will be considered formed if it passes a vote of confidence in the Knesset.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel’s 26th Knesset election on 27 October 2026 follows the automatic dissolution of the prior legislature on 17 July after a full term. Traders assign 77% probability to a government forming after this single round because the proportional-representation system and 61-seat threshold have historically produced workable coalitions once votes are tallied, even amid fragmentation. Recent polling shows Likud competitive with opposition lists such as Bennett-Lapid’s Together and Eisenkot’s Yashar, while right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties remain near the threshold; these dynamics imply post-election bargaining among Zionist parties can reach a majority without Arab factions. The 21.5% chance assigned to two elections reflects residual uncertainty over coalition arithmetic and potential Haredi-draft or security-policy sticking points that could trigger renewed deadlock, consistent with past cycles. No developments since July have altered the scheduled timeline or introduced immediate barriers to negotiation.
This market will resolve according to the number of Israeli legislative elections that occur between market creation and the formation of a government in the Knesset or December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes earlier.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of elections that occur, where occurrence is defined as nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel. Publication of an election’s results will have no bearing on this market.
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the dates of general election-day voting will count.
A government will be considered formed if it passes a vote of confidence in the Knesset.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of elections that occur, where occurrence is defined as nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel. Publication of an election’s results will have no bearing on this market.
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the dates of general election-day voting will count.
A government will be considered formed if it passes a vote of confidence in the Knesset.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$16,620End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Israel’s 26th Knesset election on 27 October 2026 follows the automatic dissolution of the prior legislature on 17 July after a full term. Traders assign 77% probability to a government forming after this single round because the proportional-representation system and 61-seat threshold have historically produced workable coalitions once votes are tallied, even amid fragmentation. Recent polling shows Likud competitive with opposition lists such as Bennett-Lapid’s Together and Eisenkot’s Yashar, while right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties remain near the threshold; these dynamics imply post-election bargaining among Zionist parties can reach a majority without Arab factions. The 21.5% chance assigned to two elections reflects residual uncertainty over coalition arithmetic and potential Haredi-draft or security-policy sticking points that could trigger renewed deadlock, consistent with past cycles. No developments since July have altered the scheduled timeline or introduced immediate barriers to negotiation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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