Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers, including the August 24 strike on the VLCC Amzan off Yanbu, sustain elevated probabilities in the "Houthis successfully target shipping" market through August 31. The July 20 naval blockade declaration against Saudi Arabia has reduced Bab el-Mandeb transits, with tanker volumes down sharply and Suez traffic recovering only modestly to levels still 40% below pre-campaign baselines. These disruptions pressure Saudi crude exports from Red Sea ports, widen war-risk insurance spreads, lift tanker charter rates, and support higher global oil benchmarks amid concurrent Strait of Hormuz constraints. Traders monitor FOMC-sensitive energy inflation data and any Saudi or international naval responses as near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHouthis successfully target shipping on...?
Houthis successfully target shipping on...?
$262,359 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
August 17
92%
August 25
11%
August 26
3%
August 27
3%
August 28
18%
August 29
15%
August 30
16%
August 31
13%
$262,359 Vol.
August 17
$9,146 Vol.
92%
August 25
$3,269 Vol.
11%
August 26
$1,483 Vol.
3%
August 27
$2,333 Vol.
3%
August 28
$2,557 Vol.
18%
August 29
$3,144 Vol.
15%
August 30
$2,230 Vol.
16%
August 31
$3,807 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers, including the August 24 strike on the VLCC Amzan off Yanbu, sustain elevated probabilities in the "Houthis successfully target shipping" market through August 31. The July 20 naval blockade declaration against Saudi Arabia has reduced Bab el-Mandeb transits, with tanker volumes down sharply and Suez traffic recovering only modestly to levels still 40% below pre-campaign baselines. These disruptions pressure Saudi crude exports from Red Sea ports, widen war-risk insurance spreads, lift tanker charter rates, and support higher global oil benchmarks amid concurrent Strait of Hormuz constraints. Traders monitor FOMC-sensitive energy inflation data and any Saudi or international naval responses as near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
Volume
$262,359End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers, including the August 24 strike on the VLCC Amzan off Yanbu, sustain elevated probabilities in the "Houthis successfully target shipping" market through August 31. The July 20 naval blockade declaration against Saudi Arabia has reduced Bab el-Mandeb transits, with tanker volumes down sharply and Suez traffic recovering only modestly to levels still 40% below pre-campaign baselines. These disruptions pressure Saudi crude exports from Red Sea ports, widen war-risk insurance spreads, lift tanker charter rates, and support higher global oil benchmarks amid concurrent Strait of Hormuz constraints. Traders monitor FOMC-sensitive energy inflation data and any Saudi or international naval responses as near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$262,359End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers, including the August 24 strike on the VLCC Amzan off Yanbu, sustain elevated probabilities in the "Houthis successfully target shipping" market through August 31. The July 20 naval blockade declaration against Saudi Arabia has reduced Bab el-Mandeb transits, with tanker volumes down sharply and Suez traffic recovering only modestly to levels still 40% below pre-campaign baselines. These disruptions pressure Saudi crude exports from Red Sea ports, widen war-risk insurance spreads, lift tanker charter rates, and support higher global oil benchmarks amid concurrent Strait of Hormuz constraints. Traders monitor FOMC-sensitive energy inflation data and any Saudi or international naval responses as near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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