The Late Show With Stephen Colbert’s dominant 77.5% implied probability stems primarily from its canceled final season, which wrapped in May 2026 and earned a record nine Emmy nominations, including for Outstanding Variety Series. Industry sympathy has coalesced around the long-running CBS program, with peers publicly signaling support amid the late-night contraction. New Television Academy rules reclassifying the merged category as an area award—where nominees can each secure wins via 90% “yes” votes—further bolster its position while leaving room for others. Saturday Night Live, Last Week Tonight, Jimmy Kimmel Live!, and The Daily Show trail as consistent contenders but lack comparable momentum or farewell narrative ahead of final voting and the September 14 ceremony.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEmmys 2026: Outstanding variety series
Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series
“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” 78%
“Saturday Night Live” 6.4%
“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver” 5.9%
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!” 5.8%
$89,370 Vol.
$89,370 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert”
78%
“Saturday Night Live”
6%
“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver”
6%
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!”
6%
“The Daily Show”
3%
“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” 78%
“Saturday Night Live” 6.4%
“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver” 5.9%
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!” 5.8%
$89,370 Vol.
$89,370 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert”
$30,710 Vol.
78%
“Saturday Night Live”
$10,086 Vol.
6%
“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver”
$16,764 Vol.
6%
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!”
$21,268 Vol.
6%
“The Daily Show”
$10,542 Vol.
3%
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Late Show With Stephen Colbert’s dominant 77.5% implied probability stems primarily from its canceled final season, which wrapped in May 2026 and earned a record nine Emmy nominations, including for Outstanding Variety Series. Industry sympathy has coalesced around the long-running CBS program, with peers publicly signaling support amid the late-night contraction. New Television Academy rules reclassifying the merged category as an area award—where nominees can each secure wins via 90% “yes” votes—further bolster its position while leaving room for others. Saturday Night Live, Last Week Tonight, Jimmy Kimmel Live!, and The Daily Show trail as consistent contenders but lack comparable momentum or farewell narrative ahead of final voting and the September 14 ceremony.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 9, 2026, 8:40 PM ET
Volume
$89,370End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 8:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Late Show With Stephen Colbert’s dominant 77.5% implied probability stems primarily from its canceled final season, which wrapped in May 2026 and earned a record nine Emmy nominations, including for Outstanding Variety Series. Industry sympathy has coalesced around the long-running CBS program, with peers publicly signaling support amid the late-night contraction. New Television Academy rules reclassifying the merged category as an area award—where nominees can each secure wins via 90% “yes” votes—further bolster its position while leaving room for others. Saturday Night Live, Last Week Tonight, Jimmy Kimmel Live!, and The Daily Show trail as consistent contenders but lack comparable momentum or farewell narrative ahead of final voting and the September 14 ceremony.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$89,370End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 8:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Late Show With Stephen Colbert’s dominant 77.5% implied probability stems primarily from its canceled final season, which wrapped in May 2026 and earned a record nine Emmy nominations, including for Outstanding Variety Series. Industry sympathy has coalesced around the long-running CBS program, with peers publicly signaling support amid the late-night contraction. New Television Academy rules reclassifying the merged category as an area award—where nominees can each secure wins via 90% “yes” votes—further bolster its position while leaving room for others. Saturday Night Live, Last Week Tonight, Jimmy Kimmel Live!, and The Daily Show trail as consistent contenders but lack comparable momentum or farewell narrative ahead of final voting and the September 14 ceremony.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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