ABC World News Tonight with David Muir anchors the market as the clear frontrunner, with individual episodes reaching 9.063 million total viewers and a weekly average of 8.462 million during the Aug. 17-23 window. In the summer off-season for most scripted series, linear news consistently delivers the highest single-program totals tracked by Nielsen’s live-plus-same-day P2+ figures. Preseason NFL and other entertainment programming fell well below those marks, while streaming hits like Outer Banks register under separate metrics. Traders assign the strongest implied probability to the 9–9.5 million bracket, reflecting the newscast’s recent stability and the absence of major specials or sports events capable of shifting the outcome before the chart locks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated# Views of Most Viewed TV Show This Week (Aug 17-23)
9m–9.5m 99.5%
8m–8.5m 17%
<7m 1.0%
7m–7.5m 1.0%
$1,113 Vol.
$1,113 Vol.
<7m
No
7m–7.5m
No
7.5m–8m
No
8m–8.5m
No
8.5m–9m
No
9m–9.5m
Yes
9.5m–10m
No
10m+
No
9m–9.5m 99.5%
8m–8.5m 17%
<7m 1.0%
7m–7.5m 1.0%
$1,113 Vol.
$1,113 Vol.
<7m
No
7m–7.5m
No
7.5m–8m
No
8m–8.5m
No
8.5m–9m
No
9m–9.5m
Yes
9.5m–10m
No
10m+
No
This market will resolve according to the number of U.S. viewers (Persons 2+ average total viewers, P2+) of the highest viewed program for the Week of August 17 - August 23.
This market will resolve based on the first official estimate reported by Nielsen. Any later revisions or retractions will have no bearing on resolution.
If the data for the specified week is not released in its entirety by 11:59 PM ET on the second Thursday following the specified week, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the data for the specified week remains partially published (i.e. excluding certain days of the week) by that time, this market will resolve based on the viewership data available at that point.
If the reported number of viewers falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve according to Nielsen’s P2+ viewership statistic for the specified week, as reported on the Linear TV Top 10 Total Chart, regardless of any future changes in methodology. If Nielsen ceases to publish the P2+ viewership statistic on the Linear TV Top 10 Total Chart, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Nielsen, specifically their P2+ viewership statistic as reported on the Linear TV Top 10 Total Chart (see: https://www.nielsen.com/data-center/top-ten/#television).
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 3:55 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.nielsen.com/data-center/top-ten/#televisionResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the number of U.S. viewers (Persons 2+ average total viewers, P2+) of the highest viewed program for the Week of August 17 - August 23.
This market will resolve based on the first official estimate reported by Nielsen. Any later revisions or retractions will have no bearing on resolution.
If the data for the specified week is not released in its entirety by 11:59 PM ET on the second Thursday following the specified week, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the data for the specified week remains partially published (i.e. excluding certain days of the week) by that time, this market will resolve based on the viewership data available at that point.
If the reported number of viewers falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve according to Nielsen’s P2+ viewership statistic for the specified week, as reported on the Linear TV Top 10 Total Chart, regardless of any future changes in methodology. If Nielsen ceases to publish the P2+ viewership statistic on the Linear TV Top 10 Total Chart, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Nielsen, specifically their P2+ viewership statistic as reported on the Linear TV Top 10 Total Chart (see: https://www.nielsen.com/data-center/top-ten/#television).
Resolution Source
https://www.nielsen.com/data-center/top-ten/#televisionResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
ABC World News Tonight with David Muir anchors the market as the clear frontrunner, with individual episodes reaching 9.063 million total viewers and a weekly average of 8.462 million during the Aug. 17-23 window. In the summer off-season for most scripted series, linear news consistently delivers the highest single-program totals tracked by Nielsen’s live-plus-same-day P2+ figures. Preseason NFL and other entertainment programming fell well below those marks, while streaming hits like Outer Banks register under separate metrics. Traders assign the strongest implied probability to the 9–9.5 million bracket, reflecting the newscast’s recent stability and the absence of major specials or sports events capable of shifting the outcome before the chart locks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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