The Strait of Hormuz remains under effective closure conditions on day 180 since late February 2026, with commercial traffic suppressed by war-risk insurance premiums at roughly 40 times normal levels, active enforcement actions, sanctions, and residual mine risks. IMF PortWatch data show just 3 transits on August 23 and a 7-day average near 5 vessels against a pre-crisis baseline of approximately 85 daily, keeping throughput at about 4% of normal. Elevated Brent crude prices near $89 reflect the supply constraints, while major carriers continue rerouting and limited dark or facilitated movements dominate what little activity persists. With resolution based on the finalized 7-day moving average reported near month-end, the market-implied odds heavily favor the 0-20 bucket because sustained low volumes are locked in by current insurance and security dynamics; a rapid, verifiable normalization sufficient to push the average above 20 would require an abrupt de-escalation or clearance not yet evident in the data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August?
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August?
0-20 98.4%
20-40 <1%
40-60 <1%
60-80 <1%
$97,783 Vol.
$97,783 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
0-20
98%
20-40
1%
40-60
<1%
60-80
<1%
80+
<1%
0-20 98.4%
20-40 <1%
40-60 <1%
60-80 <1%
$97,783 Vol.
$97,783 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
0-20
$52,429 Vol.
98%
20-40
$14,454 Vol.
1%
40-60
$12,553 Vol.
<1%
60-80
$10,309 Vol.
<1%
80+
$8,038 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.The Strait of Hormuz remains under effective closure conditions on day 180 since late February 2026, with commercial traffic suppressed by war-risk insurance premiums at roughly 40 times normal levels, active enforcement actions, sanctions, and residual mine risks. IMF PortWatch data show just 3 transits on August 23 and a 7-day average near 5 vessels against a pre-crisis baseline of approximately 85 daily, keeping throughput at about 4% of normal. Elevated Brent crude prices near $89 reflect the supply constraints, while major carriers continue rerouting and limited dark or facilitated movements dominate what little activity persists. With resolution based on the finalized 7-day moving average reported near month-end, the market-implied odds heavily favor the 0-20 bucket because sustained low volumes are locked in by current insurance and security dynamics; a rapid, verifiable normalization sufficient to push the average above 20 would require an abrupt de-escalation or clearance not yet evident in the data.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volume
$97,783End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.The Strait of Hormuz remains under effective closure conditions on day 180 since late February 2026, with commercial traffic suppressed by war-risk insurance premiums at roughly 40 times normal levels, active enforcement actions, sanctions, and residual mine risks. IMF PortWatch data show just 3 transits on August 23 and a 7-day average near 5 vessels against a pre-crisis baseline of approximately 85 daily, keeping throughput at about 4% of normal. Elevated Brent crude prices near $89 reflect the supply constraints, while major carriers continue rerouting and limited dark or facilitated movements dominate what little activity persists. With resolution based on the finalized 7-day moving average reported near month-end, the market-implied odds heavily favor the 0-20 bucket because sustained low volumes are locked in by current insurance and security dynamics; a rapid, verifiable normalization sufficient to push the average above 20 would require an abrupt de-escalation or clearance not yet evident in the data.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$97,783End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Strait of Hormuz remains under effective closure conditions on day 180 since late February 2026, with commercial traffic suppressed by war-risk insurance premiums at roughly 40 times normal levels, active enforcement actions, sanctions, and residual mine risks. IMF PortWatch data show just 3 transits on August 23 and a 7-day average near 5 vessels against a pre-crisis baseline of approximately 85 daily, keeping throughput at about 4% of normal. Elevated Brent crude prices near $89 reflect the supply constraints, while major carriers continue rerouting and limited dark or facilitated movements dominate what little activity persists. With resolution based on the finalized 7-day moving average reported near month-end, the market-implied odds heavily favor the 0-20 bucket because sustained low volumes are locked in by current insurance and security dynamics; a rapid, verifiable normalization sufficient to push the average above 20 would require an abrupt de-escalation or clearance not yet evident in the data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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