Venezuelan crude oil output stood at approximately 1.2 million barrels per day as of July 2026, reflecting a modest rebound from sub-1 million levels earlier in the year following U.S. sanctions adjustments and political shifts after Nicolás Maduro’s January arrest. Primary drivers include expanded licensing for foreign operators like Chevron, which has supported joint-venture production, alongside access to diluents and export channels that eased prior storage constraints. However, sustaining or accelerating growth toward higher thresholds requires substantial capital inflows for infrastructure rehabilitation and field maintenance, with analysts estimating 300,000–500,000 barrels per day of near-term upside contingent on stable policy and financing. Broader market dynamics, including global oversupply and heavy-crude processing economics, further influence trader assessments of 2026 resolution probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$182,851 Vol.
Feb 27, 2027
1.2m
67%
1.3m
17%
1.4m
7%
1.5m
4%
1.7m
3%
2m
2%
$182,851 Vol.
1.2m
$10,620 Vol.
67%
1.3m
$7,790 Vol.
17%
1.4m
$19,774 Vol.
7%
1.5m
$9,795 Vol.
4%
1.7m
$58,908 Vol.
3%
2m
$16,326 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.Venezuelan crude oil output stood at approximately 1.2 million barrels per day as of July 2026, reflecting a modest rebound from sub-1 million levels earlier in the year following U.S. sanctions adjustments and political shifts after Nicolás Maduro’s January arrest. Primary drivers include expanded licensing for foreign operators like Chevron, which has supported joint-venture production, alongside access to diluents and export channels that eased prior storage constraints. However, sustaining or accelerating growth toward higher thresholds requires substantial capital inflows for infrastructure rehabilitation and field maintenance, with analysts estimating 300,000–500,000 barrels per day of near-term upside contingent on stable policy and financing. Broader market dynamics, including global oversupply and heavy-crude processing economics, further influence trader assessments of 2026 resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Volume
$182,851End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.Venezuelan crude oil output stood at approximately 1.2 million barrels per day as of July 2026, reflecting a modest rebound from sub-1 million levels earlier in the year following U.S. sanctions adjustments and political shifts after Nicolás Maduro’s January arrest. Primary drivers include expanded licensing for foreign operators like Chevron, which has supported joint-venture production, alongside access to diluents and export channels that eased prior storage constraints. However, sustaining or accelerating growth toward higher thresholds requires substantial capital inflows for infrastructure rehabilitation and field maintenance, with analysts estimating 300,000–500,000 barrels per day of near-term upside contingent on stable policy and financing. Broader market dynamics, including global oversupply and heavy-crude processing economics, further influence trader assessments of 2026 resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Volume
$182,851End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Venezuelan crude oil output stood at approximately 1.2 million barrels per day as of July 2026, reflecting a modest rebound from sub-1 million levels earlier in the year following U.S. sanctions adjustments and political shifts after Nicolás Maduro’s January arrest. Primary drivers include expanded licensing for foreign operators like Chevron, which has supported joint-venture production, alongside access to diluents and export channels that eased prior storage constraints. However, sustaining or accelerating growth toward higher thresholds requires substantial capital inflows for infrastructure rehabilitation and field maintenance, with analysts estimating 300,000–500,000 barrels per day of near-term upside contingent on stable policy and financing. Broader market dynamics, including global oversupply and heavy-crude processing economics, further influence trader assessments of 2026 resolution probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions