US federal prosecutors in the Southern District of New York unsealed a superseding indictment in January 2026 charging Nicolás Maduro with four felony counts, including narco-terrorism conspiracy and cocaine importation conspiracy, after his capture in a US military operation. Maduro and his wife entered not guilty pleas, and in July 2026 a judge set a June 1, 2027 trial date. Defense counsel has signaled plans to file motions challenging jurisdiction, head-of-state immunity, and the circumstances of the apprehension. These pre-trial developments, combined with the extended timeline before any jury verdict and the inherent complexity of prosecuting a former foreign leader on multi-count conspiracy charges, underpin traders’ current 71% implied probability that Maduro will not be convicted on every count.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated31% chance
$132,711 Vol.
$132,711 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
31% chance
$132,711 Vol.
$132,711 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US federal prosecutors in the Southern District of New York unsealed a superseding indictment in January 2026 charging Nicolás Maduro with four felony counts, including narco-terrorism conspiracy and cocaine importation conspiracy, after his capture in a US military operation. Maduro and his wife entered not guilty pleas, and in July 2026 a judge set a June 1, 2027 trial date. Defense counsel has signaled plans to file motions challenging jurisdiction, head-of-state immunity, and the circumstances of the apprehension. These pre-trial developments, combined with the extended timeline before any jury verdict and the inherent complexity of prosecuting a former foreign leader on multi-count conspiracy charges, underpin traders’ current 71% implied probability that Maduro will not be convicted on every count.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ET
Volume
$132,711End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US federal prosecutors in the Southern District of New York unsealed a superseding indictment in January 2026 charging Nicolás Maduro with four felony counts, including narco-terrorism conspiracy and cocaine importation conspiracy, after his capture in a US military operation. Maduro and his wife entered not guilty pleas, and in July 2026 a judge set a June 1, 2027 trial date. Defense counsel has signaled plans to file motions challenging jurisdiction, head-of-state immunity, and the circumstances of the apprehension. These pre-trial developments, combined with the extended timeline before any jury verdict and the inherent complexity of prosecuting a former foreign leader on multi-count conspiracy charges, underpin traders’ current 71% implied probability that Maduro will not be convicted on every count.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$132,711End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US federal prosecutors in the Southern District of New York unsealed a superseding indictment in January 2026 charging Nicolás Maduro with four felony counts, including narco-terrorism conspiracy and cocaine importation conspiracy, after his capture in a US military operation. Maduro and his wife entered not guilty pleas, and in July 2026 a judge set a June 1, 2027 trial date. Defense counsel has signaled plans to file motions challenging jurisdiction, head-of-state immunity, and the circumstances of the apprehension. These pre-trial developments, combined with the extended timeline before any jury verdict and the inherent complexity of prosecuting a former foreign leader on multi-count conspiracy charges, underpin traders’ current 71% implied probability that Maduro will not be convicted on every count.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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