U.S. policy has centered on working with acting President Delcy Rodríguez since the January 2026 capture of Nicolás Maduro, emphasizing stabilization, oil sector cooperation, and sanctions relief under a three-phase framework outlined by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. This approach sidelined María Corina Machado despite her Nobel recognition and opposition support, with the administration viewing her return as a potential source of unrest and excluding her from current negotiations that began in early August. Recent earthquake recovery talks and Rodríguez’s role in economic reopening reinforce the trajectory. Trader consensus reflects these entrenched diplomatic and institutional preferences. A sudden U.S. policy reversal, major developments in ongoing talks, or unanticipated Venezuelan institutional shifts remain the primary variables that could still influence recognition by year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
$179,243 Vol.
$179,243 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
4% chance
$179,243 Vol.
$179,243 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.U.S. policy has centered on working with acting President Delcy Rodríguez since the January 2026 capture of Nicolás Maduro, emphasizing stabilization, oil sector cooperation, and sanctions relief under a three-phase framework outlined by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. This approach sidelined María Corina Machado despite her Nobel recognition and opposition support, with the administration viewing her return as a potential source of unrest and excluding her from current negotiations that began in early August. Recent earthquake recovery talks and Rodríguez’s role in economic reopening reinforce the trajectory. Trader consensus reflects these entrenched diplomatic and institutional preferences. A sudden U.S. policy reversal, major developments in ongoing talks, or unanticipated Venezuelan institutional shifts remain the primary variables that could still influence recognition by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volume
$179,243End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.U.S. policy has centered on working with acting President Delcy Rodríguez since the January 2026 capture of Nicolás Maduro, emphasizing stabilization, oil sector cooperation, and sanctions relief under a three-phase framework outlined by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. This approach sidelined María Corina Machado despite her Nobel recognition and opposition support, with the administration viewing her return as a potential source of unrest and excluding her from current negotiations that began in early August. Recent earthquake recovery talks and Rodríguez’s role in economic reopening reinforce the trajectory. Trader consensus reflects these entrenched diplomatic and institutional preferences. A sudden U.S. policy reversal, major developments in ongoing talks, or unanticipated Venezuelan institutional shifts remain the primary variables that could still influence recognition by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$179,243End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. policy has centered on working with acting President Delcy Rodríguez since the January 2026 capture of Nicolás Maduro, emphasizing stabilization, oil sector cooperation, and sanctions relief under a three-phase framework outlined by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. This approach sidelined María Corina Machado despite her Nobel recognition and opposition support, with the administration viewing her return as a potential source of unrest and excluding her from current negotiations that began in early August. Recent earthquake recovery talks and Rodríguez’s role in economic reopening reinforce the trajectory. Trader consensus reflects these entrenched diplomatic and institutional preferences. A sudden U.S. policy reversal, major developments in ongoing talks, or unanticipated Venezuelan institutional shifts remain the primary variables that could still influence recognition by year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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