Nicolás Maduro remains in US federal custody at Brooklyn’s Metropolitan Detention Center on narco-terrorism and cocaine importation charges stemming from a January 2026 Delta Force raid that removed him from power. A June 2027 trial date has been set in the Southern District of New York, with defense motions challenging jurisdiction and head-of-state immunity due in early September 2026 and oral arguments scheduled for November. Venezuela’s interim leadership under Delcy Rodríguez has engaged in US-backed transition talks with opposition factions focused on judicial reform and prisoner releases, though these negotiations have not addressed Maduro’s extradition or clemency. Traders assess release probabilities primarily through the lens of pretrial litigation outcomes, potential plea deals, or executive actions tied to broader US-Venezuela stabilization efforts ahead of the 2027 trial window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,687,895 Vol.
Jan 30, 2026
December 31
7%
$2,687,895 Vol.
December 31
$292,446 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro remains in US federal custody at Brooklyn’s Metropolitan Detention Center on narco-terrorism and cocaine importation charges stemming from a January 2026 Delta Force raid that removed him from power. A June 2027 trial date has been set in the Southern District of New York, with defense motions challenging jurisdiction and head-of-state immunity due in early September 2026 and oral arguments scheduled for November. Venezuela’s interim leadership under Delcy Rodríguez has engaged in US-backed transition talks with opposition factions focused on judicial reform and prisoner releases, though these negotiations have not addressed Maduro’s extradition or clemency. Traders assess release probabilities primarily through the lens of pretrial litigation outcomes, potential plea deals, or executive actions tied to broader US-Venezuela stabilization efforts ahead of the 2027 trial window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Volume
$2,687,895End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro remains in US federal custody at Brooklyn’s Metropolitan Detention Center on narco-terrorism and cocaine importation charges stemming from a January 2026 Delta Force raid that removed him from power. A June 2027 trial date has been set in the Southern District of New York, with defense motions challenging jurisdiction and head-of-state immunity due in early September 2026 and oral arguments scheduled for November. Venezuela’s interim leadership under Delcy Rodríguez has engaged in US-backed transition talks with opposition factions focused on judicial reform and prisoner releases, though these negotiations have not addressed Maduro’s extradition or clemency. Traders assess release probabilities primarily through the lens of pretrial litigation outcomes, potential plea deals, or executive actions tied to broader US-Venezuela stabilization efforts ahead of the 2027 trial window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,687,895End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Nicolás Maduro remains in US federal custody at Brooklyn’s Metropolitan Detention Center on narco-terrorism and cocaine importation charges stemming from a January 2026 Delta Force raid that removed him from power. A June 2027 trial date has been set in the Southern District of New York, with defense motions challenging jurisdiction and head-of-state immunity due in early September 2026 and oral arguments scheduled for November. Venezuela’s interim leadership under Delcy Rodríguez has engaged in US-backed transition talks with opposition factions focused on judicial reform and prisoner releases, though these negotiations have not addressed Maduro’s extradition or clemency. Traders assess release probabilities primarily through the lens of pretrial litigation outcomes, potential plea deals, or executive actions tied to broader US-Venezuela stabilization efforts ahead of the 2027 trial window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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