Recent sanctions relief and Venezuela’s new hydrocarbons regulations, which cut the government’s fiscal take to 20-35%, have driven a sharp production rebound to roughly 1.2 million barrels per day as of mid-2026, up from under 900,000 bpd late last year, with exports to the U.S. now accounting for about half of output. PDVSA and partners cite diluent imports, workovers, and joint-venture expansions—led by Chevron—as key near-term catalysts, targeting 1.245 million bpd by end-August and an official 1.4 million bpd by year-end. However, aging port infrastructure, power outages, limited rig availability, and heavy-crude logistics continue to constrain further gains. Analyst forecasts cluster around 1.3 million bpd by December 2026, with sustained growth dependent on stable policy, capital inflows, and global heavy-crude demand amid an oversupplied market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$182,851 Vol.
Feb 27, 2027
1.2m
66%
1.3m
17%
1.4m
7%
1.5m
4%
1.7m
3%
2m
2%
$182,851 Vol.
1.2m
$10,620 Vol.
66%
1.3m
$7,790 Vol.
17%
1.4m
$19,774 Vol.
7%
1.5m
$9,795 Vol.
4%
1.7m
$58,908 Vol.
3%
2m
$16,326 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.Recent sanctions relief and Venezuela’s new hydrocarbons regulations, which cut the government’s fiscal take to 20-35%, have driven a sharp production rebound to roughly 1.2 million barrels per day as of mid-2026, up from under 900,000 bpd late last year, with exports to the U.S. now accounting for about half of output. PDVSA and partners cite diluent imports, workovers, and joint-venture expansions—led by Chevron—as key near-term catalysts, targeting 1.245 million bpd by end-August and an official 1.4 million bpd by year-end. However, aging port infrastructure, power outages, limited rig availability, and heavy-crude logistics continue to constrain further gains. Analyst forecasts cluster around 1.3 million bpd by December 2026, with sustained growth dependent on stable policy, capital inflows, and global heavy-crude demand amid an oversupplied market.
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Volume
$182,851End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.Recent sanctions relief and Venezuela’s new hydrocarbons regulations, which cut the government’s fiscal take to 20-35%, have driven a sharp production rebound to roughly 1.2 million barrels per day as of mid-2026, up from under 900,000 bpd late last year, with exports to the U.S. now accounting for about half of output. PDVSA and partners cite diluent imports, workovers, and joint-venture expansions—led by Chevron—as key near-term catalysts, targeting 1.245 million bpd by end-August and an official 1.4 million bpd by year-end. However, aging port infrastructure, power outages, limited rig availability, and heavy-crude logistics continue to constrain further gains. Analyst forecasts cluster around 1.3 million bpd by December 2026, with sustained growth dependent on stable policy, capital inflows, and global heavy-crude demand amid an oversupplied market.
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Volume
$182,851End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent sanctions relief and Venezuela’s new hydrocarbons regulations, which cut the government’s fiscal take to 20-35%, have driven a sharp production rebound to roughly 1.2 million barrels per day as of mid-2026, up from under 900,000 bpd late last year, with exports to the U.S. now accounting for about half of output. PDVSA and partners cite diluent imports, workovers, and joint-venture expansions—led by Chevron—as key near-term catalysts, targeting 1.245 million bpd by end-August and an official 1.4 million bpd by year-end. However, aging port infrastructure, power outages, limited rig availability, and heavy-crude logistics continue to constrain further gains. Analyst forecasts cluster around 1.3 million bpd by December 2026, with sustained growth dependent on stable policy, capital inflows, and global heavy-crude demand amid an oversupplied market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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