Trump has exercised his constitutional pardon authority extensively in his second term, granting clemency to more than 1,700 individuals since January 2025, including a blanket action for roughly 1,500 January 6 defendants on his first day in office and subsequent batches through mid-2026. Recent grants include actions in January, February, and July 2026 involving Clean Air Act cases and political donors, often bypassing the traditional Department of Justice review process in favor of direct White House decisions influenced by allies and access networks. Trader sentiment for near-term markets reflects this pattern of ongoing executive clemency alongside structural factors such as pending applications, Senate dynamics on related oversight, and the president's stated priorities on issues like election-related cases. Upcoming events that could shift probabilities include any scheduled announcements or responses to lobbying efforts before resolution dates.