Trader consensus pricing a 74.3% probability against a Stripe-PayPal deal closing in 2026 reflects PayPal’s July rejection of the $53 billion joint bid from Stripe and Advent International at $60.50 per share. PayPal’s board viewed the offer—representing roughly a 28-30% premium—as undervaluing the company amid its ongoing turnaround under new leadership, prompting demands for a higher price near $70. While preliminary interest surfaced in February and talks have continued with committed bank financing, the absence of a revised agreement, combined with typical regulatory scrutiny for large fintech combinations and the compressed timeline remaining in 2026, sustains elevated odds against completion. Key near-term catalysts include any updated pricing proposals or formal termination signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated26% chance
$82,303 Vol.
$82,303 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
26% chance
$82,303 Vol.
$82,303 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Paypal will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Stripe by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying acquisition or acquisition announcement must include the acquisition of a controlling interest in Paypal by Stripe. A "controlling interest" is defined as an ownership stake sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions, typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting rights, governance rights, board control, or other mechanisms. Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest, such as minority stake purchases, will not count.
An announcement of a qualifying acquisition or merger by Paypal or Paypal and Stripe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Paypal and Stripe, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus pricing a 74.3% probability against a Stripe-PayPal deal closing in 2026 reflects PayPal’s July rejection of the $53 billion joint bid from Stripe and Advent International at $60.50 per share. PayPal’s board viewed the offer—representing roughly a 28-30% premium—as undervaluing the company amid its ongoing turnaround under new leadership, prompting demands for a higher price near $70. While preliminary interest surfaced in February and talks have continued with committed bank financing, the absence of a revised agreement, combined with typical regulatory scrutiny for large fintech combinations and the compressed timeline remaining in 2026, sustains elevated odds against completion. Key near-term catalysts include any updated pricing proposals or formal termination signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Paypal will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Stripe by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying acquisition or acquisition announcement must include the acquisition of a controlling interest in Paypal by Stripe. A "controlling interest" is defined as an ownership stake sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions, typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting rights, governance rights, board control, or other mechanisms. Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest, such as minority stake purchases, will not count.
An announcement of a qualifying acquisition or merger by Paypal or Paypal and Stripe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Paypal and Stripe, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying acquisition or acquisition announcement must include the acquisition of a controlling interest in Paypal by Stripe. A "controlling interest" is defined as an ownership stake sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions, typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting rights, governance rights, board control, or other mechanisms. Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest, such as minority stake purchases, will not count.
An announcement of a qualifying acquisition or merger by Paypal or Paypal and Stripe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Paypal and Stripe, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 24, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$82,303End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 24, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Paypal will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Stripe by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying acquisition or acquisition announcement must include the acquisition of a controlling interest in Paypal by Stripe. A "controlling interest" is defined as an ownership stake sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions, typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting rights, governance rights, board control, or other mechanisms. Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest, such as minority stake purchases, will not count.
An announcement of a qualifying acquisition or merger by Paypal or Paypal and Stripe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Paypal and Stripe, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus pricing a 74.3% probability against a Stripe-PayPal deal closing in 2026 reflects PayPal’s July rejection of the $53 billion joint bid from Stripe and Advent International at $60.50 per share. PayPal’s board viewed the offer—representing roughly a 28-30% premium—as undervaluing the company amid its ongoing turnaround under new leadership, prompting demands for a higher price near $70. While preliminary interest surfaced in February and talks have continued with committed bank financing, the absence of a revised agreement, combined with typical regulatory scrutiny for large fintech combinations and the compressed timeline remaining in 2026, sustains elevated odds against completion. Key near-term catalysts include any updated pricing proposals or formal termination signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Paypal will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Stripe by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying acquisition or acquisition announcement must include the acquisition of a controlling interest in Paypal by Stripe. A "controlling interest" is defined as an ownership stake sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions, typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting rights, governance rights, board control, or other mechanisms. Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest, such as minority stake purchases, will not count.
An announcement of a qualifying acquisition or merger by Paypal or Paypal and Stripe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Paypal and Stripe, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying acquisition or acquisition announcement must include the acquisition of a controlling interest in Paypal by Stripe. A "controlling interest" is defined as an ownership stake sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions, typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting rights, governance rights, board control, or other mechanisms. Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest, such as minority stake purchases, will not count.
An announcement of a qualifying acquisition or merger by Paypal or Paypal and Stripe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Paypal and Stripe, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$82,303End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 24, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus pricing a 74.3% probability against a Stripe-PayPal deal closing in 2026 reflects PayPal’s July rejection of the $53 billion joint bid from Stripe and Advent International at $60.50 per share. PayPal’s board viewed the offer—representing roughly a 28-30% premium—as undervaluing the company amid its ongoing turnaround under new leadership, prompting demands for a higher price near $70. While preliminary interest surfaced in February and talks have continued with committed bank financing, the absence of a revised agreement, combined with typical regulatory scrutiny for large fintech combinations and the compressed timeline remaining in 2026, sustains elevated odds against completion. Key near-term catalysts include any updated pricing proposals or formal termination signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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