El Niño conditions currently suppressing Atlantic activity represent the dominant driver behind the 87% market-implied odds against any Category 5 U.S. landfall before 2027. NOAA’s August 2026 update projects only 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the season, citing elevated wind shear and a developing El Niño that historically reduces major hurricane formation and U.S. landfall risk. With just three named storms and zero hurricanes recorded to date, the quiet early peak period aligns with below-normal seasonal outlooks from Colorado State University and others. Category 5 landfalls remain climatologically rare events—only four have struck the contiguous United States since 1928—further lowering probabilities when major hurricane counts are forecast so low. Traders are weighting these official model consensus and observational data heavily as the window narrows toward November 30.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
13% chance
$139,514 Vol.
$139,514 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
13% chance
$139,514 Vol.
$139,514 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.El Niño conditions currently suppressing Atlantic activity represent the dominant driver behind the 87% market-implied odds against any Category 5 U.S. landfall before 2027. NOAA’s August 2026 update projects only 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the season, citing elevated wind shear and a developing El Niño that historically reduces major hurricane formation and U.S. landfall risk. With just three named storms and zero hurricanes recorded to date, the quiet early peak period aligns with below-normal seasonal outlooks from Colorado State University and others. Category 5 landfalls remain climatologically rare events—only four have struck the contiguous United States since 1928—further lowering probabilities when major hurricane counts are forecast so low. Traders are weighting these official model consensus and observational data heavily as the window narrows toward November 30.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$139,514End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.El Niño conditions currently suppressing Atlantic activity represent the dominant driver behind the 87% market-implied odds against any Category 5 U.S. landfall before 2027. NOAA’s August 2026 update projects only 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the season, citing elevated wind shear and a developing El Niño that historically reduces major hurricane formation and U.S. landfall risk. With just three named storms and zero hurricanes recorded to date, the quiet early peak period aligns with below-normal seasonal outlooks from Colorado State University and others. Category 5 landfalls remain climatologically rare events—only four have struck the contiguous United States since 1928—further lowering probabilities when major hurricane counts are forecast so low. Traders are weighting these official model consensus and observational data heavily as the window narrows toward November 30.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$139,514End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...El Niño conditions currently suppressing Atlantic activity represent the dominant driver behind the 87% market-implied odds against any Category 5 U.S. landfall before 2027. NOAA’s August 2026 update projects only 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the season, citing elevated wind shear and a developing El Niño that historically reduces major hurricane formation and U.S. landfall risk. With just three named storms and zero hurricanes recorded to date, the quiet early peak period aligns with below-normal seasonal outlooks from Colorado State University and others. Category 5 landfalls remain climatologically rare events—only four have struck the contiguous United States since 1928—further lowering probabilities when major hurricane counts are forecast so low. Traders are weighting these official model consensus and observational data heavily as the window narrows toward November 30.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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