**Saudi Arabia remains the pivotal actor in any near-term expansion of the Abraham Accords, yet Riyadh continues to condition normalization on concrete progress toward Palestinian statehood alongside additional U.S. security and nuclear cooperation assurances.** Recent statements from Saudi officials and state-linked reporting have reaffirmed this stance even amid U.S. President Trump’s repeated public calls in spring 2026 for Riyadh, Qatar, Pakistan, and others to join as part of post-conflict regional arrangements tied to Iran diplomacy. No new Arab or Muslim-majority state has acceded since Kazakhstan’s early-2026 entry and Somaliland’s pledge the prior December. Ongoing regional tensions, including the aftermath of Israel-Iran hostilities and Gulf hedging through alternative defense pacts, have further cooled momentum. With only months remaining before the end of 2026, these entrenched diplomatic prerequisites and the absence of breakthrough announcements or scheduled summits have produced the current trader consensus reflected in the 83.7% probability on “No.”