**The Knesset dissolved on July 17, 2026, after completing its full four-year term, with general elections set for October 27.** This places any new parliamentary session and government formation process after the vote count and coalition negotiations, which recent polling shows will be complex. Current surveys project Netanyahu’s coalition bloc around 48–52 seats and the main opposition around 59–67, with no side assured of the 61-seat majority needed; emerging lists such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and Naftali Bennett’s Together further fragment the arithmetic. Coalition talks in Israel routinely extend for weeks or months after elections, especially in a polarized environment with multiple viable blocs and disputes over partners, including secular-right and Arab parties. A vote of confidence in the new government therefore depends on how quickly a viable majority can be assembled and presented to the incoming 26th Knesset, which is unlikely to convene before mid-November. Recent polling volatility, including late entries by figures such as Ofer Winter and internal Likud dynamics, reinforces expectations of extended bargaining. Traders’ modest lean toward “No” (57.5 %) reflects these structural timelines and the absence of any early dissolution or interim confidence mechanism that could trigger a vote before year-end. Scheduled post-election procedural steps and the fragmented seat distribution remain the dominant influences on the market.