Recent court-ordered redistricting has shifted Utah's 1st Congressional District significantly leftward, incorporating more of the Salt Lake City area and producing a D+12 Partisan Voter Index. The resulting open seat drew a strong Democratic field, with former U.S. Representative Ben McAdams securing the nomination in the June 2026 primary. All major forecasting outlets now rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November general election against Republican nominee Riley Owen. Trader consensus at these levels reflects the district's structural tilt and the absence of major late-cycle developments that would typically alter such an outlook. A substantial shift would require an unforeseen scandal, health event, or turnout anomaly far outside historical patterns for the new boundaries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUT-01 House Election Winner
UT-01 House Election Winner
$37,042 Vol.
$37,042 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$37,042 Vol.
$37,042 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$5,649 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$31,393 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Recent court-ordered redistricting has shifted Utah's 1st Congressional District significantly leftward, incorporating more of the Salt Lake City area and producing a D+12 Partisan Voter Index. The resulting open seat drew a strong Democratic field, with former U.S. Representative Ben McAdams securing the nomination in the June 2026 primary. All major forecasting outlets now rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November general election against Republican nominee Riley Owen. Trader consensus at these levels reflects the district's structural tilt and the absence of major late-cycle developments that would typically alter such an outlook. A substantial shift would require an unforeseen scandal, health event, or turnout anomaly far outside historical patterns for the new boundaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
Volume
$37,042End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Recent court-ordered redistricting has shifted Utah's 1st Congressional District significantly leftward, incorporating more of the Salt Lake City area and producing a D+12 Partisan Voter Index. The resulting open seat drew a strong Democratic field, with former U.S. Representative Ben McAdams securing the nomination in the June 2026 primary. All major forecasting outlets now rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November general election against Republican nominee Riley Owen. Trader consensus at these levels reflects the district's structural tilt and the absence of major late-cycle developments that would typically alter such an outlook. A substantial shift would require an unforeseen scandal, health event, or turnout anomaly far outside historical patterns for the new boundaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$37,042End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent court-ordered redistricting has shifted Utah's 1st Congressional District significantly leftward, incorporating more of the Salt Lake City area and producing a D+12 Partisan Voter Index. The resulting open seat drew a strong Democratic field, with former U.S. Representative Ben McAdams securing the nomination in the June 2026 primary. All major forecasting outlets now rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November general election against Republican nominee Riley Owen. Trader consensus at these levels reflects the district's structural tilt and the absence of major late-cycle developments that would typically alter such an outlook. A substantial shift would require an unforeseen scandal, health event, or turnout anomaly far outside historical patterns for the new boundaries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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