Incumbent Republican Blake Moore secured the nomination for Utah’s 2nd Congressional District in the June 2026 primary, defeating challenger Karianne Lisonbee by a 58–42 margin after earlier convention setbacks. The district, redrawn for 2026 but retaining a strong Republican tilt, features limited Democratic infrastructure, with nominee Peter Crosby advancing unopposed. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive general-election polling. Trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% Republican price aligns with these structural advantages and the completed primary process, though late developments such as unexpected turnout shifts or third-party impacts could still influence the November outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUT-02 House Election Winner
UT-02 House Election Winner
$12,940 Vol.
$12,940 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
5%
$12,940 Vol.
$12,940 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$2,441 Vol.
95%
Democratic Party
$10,500 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Blake Moore secured the nomination for Utah’s 2nd Congressional District in the June 2026 primary, defeating challenger Karianne Lisonbee by a 58–42 margin after earlier convention setbacks. The district, redrawn for 2026 but retaining a strong Republican tilt, features limited Democratic infrastructure, with nominee Peter Crosby advancing unopposed. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive general-election polling. Trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% Republican price aligns with these structural advantages and the completed primary process, though late developments such as unexpected turnout shifts or third-party impacts could still influence the November outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
Volume
$12,940End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Blake Moore secured the nomination for Utah’s 2nd Congressional District in the June 2026 primary, defeating challenger Karianne Lisonbee by a 58–42 margin after earlier convention setbacks. The district, redrawn for 2026 but retaining a strong Republican tilt, features limited Democratic infrastructure, with nominee Peter Crosby advancing unopposed. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive general-election polling. Trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% Republican price aligns with these structural advantages and the completed primary process, though late developments such as unexpected turnout shifts or third-party impacts could still influence the November outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$12,940End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Blake Moore secured the nomination for Utah’s 2nd Congressional District in the June 2026 primary, defeating challenger Karianne Lisonbee by a 58–42 margin after earlier convention setbacks. The district, redrawn for 2026 but retaining a strong Republican tilt, features limited Democratic infrastructure, with nominee Peter Crosby advancing unopposed. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive general-election polling. Trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% Republican price aligns with these structural advantages and the completed primary process, though late developments such as unexpected turnout shifts or third-party impacts could still influence the November outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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