Traders see a closely contested Q3 2026 GDP outcome, with the three leading ranges—≥3.0% at 31.5%, 2.0–2.5% at 25.0%, and 2.5–3.0% at 22.5%—reflecting uncertainty over whether AI-driven business investment and productivity gains can sustain above-trend expansion. Recent data show resilient capital spending offsetting softer consumer demand and headwinds from tariffs plus energy prices, while the labor market remains balanced near 4.2–4.5% unemployment and core PCE inflation holds around 3.3%. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% in July underscores this balance, with markets pricing limited near-term easing. Key upcoming releases on August–September employment, inflation, and retail sales, plus the September FOMC meeting, will likely shift implied probabilities ahead of the late-October advance GDP print.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated≥3.0% 32%
2.0–2.5% 25%
2.5–3.0% 23%
1.5–2.0% 8%
$23,079 Vol.
$23,079 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
2%
0.5–1.0%
4%
1.0–1.5%
5%
1.5–2.0%
8%
2.0–2.5%
25%
2.5–3.0%
23%
≥3.0%
32%
≥3.0% 32%
2.0–2.5% 25%
2.5–3.0% 23%
1.5–2.0% 8%
$23,079 Vol.
$23,079 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
$760 Vol.
2%
0.5–1.0%
$485 Vol.
4%
1.0–1.5%
$553 Vol.
5%
1.5–2.0%
$599 Vol.
8%
2.0–2.5%
$1,810 Vol.
25%
2.5–3.0%
$3,224 Vol.
23%
≥3.0%
$15,648 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Traders see a closely contested Q3 2026 GDP outcome, with the three leading ranges—≥3.0% at 31.5%, 2.0–2.5% at 25.0%, and 2.5–3.0% at 22.5%—reflecting uncertainty over whether AI-driven business investment and productivity gains can sustain above-trend expansion. Recent data show resilient capital spending offsetting softer consumer demand and headwinds from tariffs plus energy prices, while the labor market remains balanced near 4.2–4.5% unemployment and core PCE inflation holds around 3.3%. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% in July underscores this balance, with markets pricing limited near-term easing. Key upcoming releases on August–September employment, inflation, and retail sales, plus the September FOMC meeting, will likely shift implied probabilities ahead of the late-October advance GDP print.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volume
$23,079End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Traders see a closely contested Q3 2026 GDP outcome, with the three leading ranges—≥3.0% at 31.5%, 2.0–2.5% at 25.0%, and 2.5–3.0% at 22.5%—reflecting uncertainty over whether AI-driven business investment and productivity gains can sustain above-trend expansion. Recent data show resilient capital spending offsetting softer consumer demand and headwinds from tariffs plus energy prices, while the labor market remains balanced near 4.2–4.5% unemployment and core PCE inflation holds around 3.3%. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% in July underscores this balance, with markets pricing limited near-term easing. Key upcoming releases on August–September employment, inflation, and retail sales, plus the September FOMC meeting, will likely shift implied probabilities ahead of the late-October advance GDP print.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$23,079End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see a closely contested Q3 2026 GDP outcome, with the three leading ranges—≥3.0% at 31.5%, 2.0–2.5% at 25.0%, and 2.5–3.0% at 22.5%—reflecting uncertainty over whether AI-driven business investment and productivity gains can sustain above-trend expansion. Recent data show resilient capital spending offsetting softer consumer demand and headwinds from tariffs plus energy prices, while the labor market remains balanced near 4.2–4.5% unemployment and core PCE inflation holds around 3.3%. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% in July underscores this balance, with markets pricing limited near-term easing. Key upcoming releases on August–September employment, inflation, and retail sales, plus the September FOMC meeting, will likely shift implied probabilities ahead of the late-October advance GDP print.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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