Recent UK GDP data showed 0.4% QoQ growth in Q2 2026 after 0.6% in Q1, but the Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report projects underlying growth slowing to around 0% in Q3 amid higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict and subdued demand momentum. Forecaster consensus from the Treasury’s August survey centers on 0.1–0.2% QoQ for the quarter, with August flash PMI at 52.5 signaling some services resilience offset by manufacturing weakness. These factors underpin the 31.5% implied probability on 0.2–0.3% growth while supporting the broad distribution across lower and negative outcomes, reflecting uncertainty over energy pass-through, labor market softening near 4.9% unemployment, and potential carryover effects into Q3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.2–0.3% 32%
0.4–0.5% 22%
0.0–0.1% 21%
Negative 20%
$11,452 Vol.
$11,452 Vol.
Nov 11, 2026
Negative
20%
0.0–0.1%
21%
0.2–0.3%
32%
0.4–0.5%
22%
0.6–0.7%
6%
0.8–0.9%
1%
1.0%+
5%
0.2–0.3% 32%
0.4–0.5% 22%
0.0–0.1% 21%
Negative 20%
$11,452 Vol.
$11,452 Vol.
Nov 11, 2026
Negative
$1,955 Vol.
20%
0.0–0.1%
$5,030 Vol.
21%
0.2–0.3%
$3,068 Vol.
32%
0.4–0.5%
$770 Vol.
22%
0.6–0.7%
$229 Vol.
6%
0.8–0.9%
$195 Vol.
1%
1.0%+
$205 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent UK GDP data showed 0.4% QoQ growth in Q2 2026 after 0.6% in Q1, but the Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report projects underlying growth slowing to around 0% in Q3 amid higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict and subdued demand momentum. Forecaster consensus from the Treasury’s August survey centers on 0.1–0.2% QoQ for the quarter, with August flash PMI at 52.5 signaling some services resilience offset by manufacturing weakness. These factors underpin the 31.5% implied probability on 0.2–0.3% growth while supporting the broad distribution across lower and negative outcomes, reflecting uncertainty over energy pass-through, labor market softening near 4.9% unemployment, and potential carryover effects into Q3.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ET
Volume
$11,452End Date
Nov 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent UK GDP data showed 0.4% QoQ growth in Q2 2026 after 0.6% in Q1, but the Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report projects underlying growth slowing to around 0% in Q3 amid higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict and subdued demand momentum. Forecaster consensus from the Treasury’s August survey centers on 0.1–0.2% QoQ for the quarter, with August flash PMI at 52.5 signaling some services resilience offset by manufacturing weakness. These factors underpin the 31.5% implied probability on 0.2–0.3% growth while supporting the broad distribution across lower and negative outcomes, reflecting uncertainty over energy pass-through, labor market softening near 4.9% unemployment, and potential carryover effects into Q3.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$11,452End Date
Nov 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent UK GDP data showed 0.4% QoQ growth in Q2 2026 after 0.6% in Q1, but the Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report projects underlying growth slowing to around 0% in Q3 amid higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict and subdued demand momentum. Forecaster consensus from the Treasury’s August survey centers on 0.1–0.2% QoQ for the quarter, with August flash PMI at 52.5 signaling some services resilience offset by manufacturing weakness. These factors underpin the 31.5% implied probability on 0.2–0.3% growth while supporting the broad distribution across lower and negative outcomes, reflecting uncertainty over energy pass-through, labor market softening near 4.9% unemployment, and potential carryover effects into Q3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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