Texas's 22nd congressional district maintains a strong Republican structural advantage heading into the November 2026 general election, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+11 and Donald Trump carrying it by roughly 22 points in 2024. The open seat following Troy Nehls's retirement has drawn a Republican nominee in Trever Nehls, who secured the primary with endorsements including from Trump, while Democrat Marquette Greene-Scott advanced from her primary. Expert ratings from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others classify the race as Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus reflected in current market pricing aligns with this baseline, driven by the district's suburban Houston footprint across Fort Bend and Brazoria counties and consistent GOP performance in recent cycles. A national Democratic wave or unusually strong turnout among growing minority communities in Fort Bend could narrow margins, though such shifts would need to overcome the established partisan lean to alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-22 House Election Winner
TX-22 House Election Winner
$26,487 Vol.
$26,487 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
8%
$26,487 Vol.
$26,487 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$16,898 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$9,589 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 22nd congressional district maintains a strong Republican structural advantage heading into the November 2026 general election, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+11 and Donald Trump carrying it by roughly 22 points in 2024. The open seat following Troy Nehls's retirement has drawn a Republican nominee in Trever Nehls, who secured the primary with endorsements including from Trump, while Democrat Marquette Greene-Scott advanced from her primary. Expert ratings from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others classify the race as Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus reflected in current market pricing aligns with this baseline, driven by the district's suburban Houston footprint across Fort Bend and Brazoria counties and consistent GOP performance in recent cycles. A national Democratic wave or unusually strong turnout among growing minority communities in Fort Bend could narrow margins, though such shifts would need to overcome the established partisan lean to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$26,487End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 22nd congressional district maintains a strong Republican structural advantage heading into the November 2026 general election, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+11 and Donald Trump carrying it by roughly 22 points in 2024. The open seat following Troy Nehls's retirement has drawn a Republican nominee in Trever Nehls, who secured the primary with endorsements including from Trump, while Democrat Marquette Greene-Scott advanced from her primary. Expert ratings from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others classify the race as Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus reflected in current market pricing aligns with this baseline, driven by the district's suburban Houston footprint across Fort Bend and Brazoria counties and consistent GOP performance in recent cycles. A national Democratic wave or unusually strong turnout among growing minority communities in Fort Bend could narrow margins, though such shifts would need to overcome the established partisan lean to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,487End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Texas's 22nd congressional district maintains a strong Republican structural advantage heading into the November 2026 general election, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+11 and Donald Trump carrying it by roughly 22 points in 2024. The open seat following Troy Nehls's retirement has drawn a Republican nominee in Trever Nehls, who secured the primary with endorsements including from Trump, while Democrat Marquette Greene-Scott advanced from her primary. Expert ratings from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others classify the race as Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus reflected in current market pricing aligns with this baseline, driven by the district's suburban Houston footprint across Fort Bend and Brazoria counties and consistent GOP performance in recent cycles. A national Democratic wave or unusually strong turnout among growing minority communities in Fort Bend could narrow margins, though such shifts would need to overcome the established partisan lean to alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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