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Geopolitics·UN

Next Secretary-General of the United Nations

icon for Next Secretary-General of the United Nations
Geopolitics·UN

Next Secretary-General of the United Nations

Rebeca Grynspan 38%

Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett 20.8%

Rafael Grossi 16%

María Fernanda Espinosa 12.4%

Polymarket

$182,204 Vol.

Rebeca Grynspan 38%

Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett 20.8%

Rafael Grossi 16%

María Fernanda Espinosa 12.4%

Polymarket

$182,204 Vol.

icon for Rebeca Grynspan

Rebeca Grynspan

$14,634 Vol.

38%

icon for Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett

Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett

$2,914 Vol.

21%

icon for Rafael Grossi

Rafael Grossi

$25,651 Vol.

16%

icon for María Fernanda Espinosa

María Fernanda Espinosa

$3,575 Vol.

12%

icon for Macky Sall

Macky Sall

$119,993 Vol.

4%

icon for Olara Otunnu

Olara Otunnu

$2,913 Vol.

4%

icon for Michelle Bachelet

Michelle Bachelet

$11,443 Vol.

3%

icon for Ivonne de Baki

Ivonne de Baki

$1,081 Vol.

1%

A selection process is currently being held to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations, with the current term set to end on 31 December 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. A recommendation by the United Nations Security Council alone will not be sufficient for resolution. Any interim or caretaker Secretary-General will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Secretary-General is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The latest Security Council straw polls have shaped trader consensus on the next UN secretary-general, with Rebeca Grynspan holding the lead after strong early support while Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett advanced following the August round. Grynspan, Costa Rica’s former vice president and current UNCTAD head with experience negotiating the Black Sea grain initiative, benefits from broad backing among non-permanent members and low discourage votes, positioning her as a multilateralist insider acceptable across divides. Rodrigues-Birkett, Guyana’s permanent representative and ex-foreign minister, gained ground through diplomatic networks in the Latin American and Caribbean Group, where regional rotation norms favor candidates from the region. Rafael Grossi’s IAEA leadership offers nuclear nonproliferation credentials but faces higher opposition in polls. The field of GRULAC nominees remains fluid ahead of further ballots that test permanent-member veto thresholds before any formal recommendation reaches the General Assembly.

A selection process is currently being held to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations, with the current term set to end on 31 December 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. A recommendation by the United Nations Security Council alone will not be sufficient for resolution. Any interim or caretaker Secretary-General will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Secretary-General is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$182,204
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 2:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A selection process is currently being held to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations, with the current term set to end on 31 December 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. A recommendation by the United Nations Security Council alone will not be sufficient for resolution. Any interim or caretaker Secretary-General will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Secretary-General is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A selection process is currently being held to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations, with the current term set to end on 31 December 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. A recommendation by the United Nations Security Council alone will not be sufficient for resolution. Any interim or caretaker Secretary-General will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Secretary-General is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The latest Security Council straw polls have shaped trader consensus on the next UN secretary-general, with Rebeca Grynspan holding the lead after strong early support while Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett advanced following the August round. Grynspan, Costa Rica’s former vice president and current UNCTAD head with experience negotiating the Black Sea grain initiative, benefits from broad backing among non-permanent members and low discourage votes, positioning her as a multilateralist insider acceptable across divides. Rodrigues-Birkett, Guyana’s permanent representative and ex-foreign minister, gained ground through diplomatic networks in the Latin American and Caribbean Group, where regional rotation norms favor candidates from the region. Rafael Grossi’s IAEA leadership offers nuclear nonproliferation credentials but faces higher opposition in polls. The field of GRULAC nominees remains fluid ahead of further ballots that test permanent-member veto thresholds before any formal recommendation reaches the General Assembly.

A selection process is currently being held to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations, with the current term set to end on 31 December 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. A recommendation by the United Nations Security Council alone will not be sufficient for resolution. Any interim or caretaker Secretary-General will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Secretary-General is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$182,204
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 2:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A selection process is currently being held to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations, with the current term set to end on 31 December 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. A recommendation by the United Nations Security Council alone will not be sufficient for resolution. Any interim or caretaker Secretary-General will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Secretary-General is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Secretary-General of the United Nations" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Rebeca Grynspan" at 38%, followed by "Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 38¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next Secretary-General of the United Nations" has generated $182.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 21, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next Secretary-General of the United Nations," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Secretary-General of the United Nations" is "Rebeca Grynspan" at 38%, meaning the market assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Secretary-General of the United Nations" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.