**António Guterres is serving the final months of his second five-year term as UN Secretary-General, which ends on 31 December 2026.** The selection process for his successor is already underway, with multiple candidates participating in Security Council straw polls and General Assembly interactive dialogues scheduled through mid-2026, but no formal steps or member-state actions indicate any effort to shorten his mandate. Guterres continues routine official duties, including public statements on conflicts and climate issues as recently as August 2026, without reports of resignation pressure, health concerns, or institutional moves that could trigger an early departure. The 79% implied probability on “No” therefore reflects trader consensus that the standard term structure and absence of disruptive political developments will allow him to complete his tenure through year-end, consistent with historical patterns where secretaries-general have served full terms absent extraordinary circumstances.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAntónio Guterres out by December 31?
António Guterres out by December 31?
22% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2026
22% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**António Guterres is serving the final months of his second five-year term as UN Secretary-General, which ends on 31 December 2026.** The selection process for his successor is already underway, with multiple candidates participating in Security Council straw polls and General Assembly interactive dialogues scheduled through mid-2026, but no formal steps or member-state actions indicate any effort to shorten his mandate. Guterres continues routine official duties, including public statements on conflicts and climate issues as recently as August 2026, without reports of resignation pressure, health concerns, or institutional moves that could trigger an early departure.
The 79% implied probability on “No” therefore reflects trader consensus that the standard term structure and absence of disruptive political developments will allow him to complete his tenure through year-end, consistent with historical patterns where secretaries-general have served full terms absent extraordinary circumstances.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 21, 2026, 2:17 PM ET
Volume
$2,213End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 2:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**António Guterres is serving the final months of his second five-year term as UN Secretary-General, which ends on 31 December 2026.** The selection process for his successor is already underway, with multiple candidates participating in Security Council straw polls and General Assembly interactive dialogues scheduled through mid-2026, but no formal steps or member-state actions indicate any effort to shorten his mandate. Guterres continues routine official duties, including public statements on conflicts and climate issues as recently as August 2026, without reports of resignation pressure, health concerns, or institutional moves that could trigger an early departure.
The 79% implied probability on “No” therefore reflects trader consensus that the standard term structure and absence of disruptive political developments will allow him to complete his tenure through year-end, consistent with historical patterns where secretaries-general have served full terms absent extraordinary circumstances.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,213End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 2:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**António Guterres is serving the final months of his second five-year term as UN Secretary-General, which ends on 31 December 2026.** The selection process for his successor is already underway, with multiple candidates participating in Security Council straw polls and General Assembly interactive dialogues scheduled through mid-2026, but no formal steps or member-state actions indicate any effort to shorten his mandate. Guterres continues routine official duties, including public statements on conflicts and climate issues as recently as August 2026, without reports of resignation pressure, health concerns, or institutional moves that could trigger an early departure. The 79% implied probability on “No” therefore reflects trader consensus that the standard term structure and absence of disruptive political developments will allow him to complete his tenure through year-end, consistent with historical patterns where secretaries-general have served full terms absent extraordinary circumstances.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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