Strong trader consensus on "No" for a new pandemic in 2026 reflects the absence of any WHO-declared global event through late August, despite ongoing outbreaks such as the Bundibugyo virus Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which has exceeded 4,500 cases with regional spread but only limited imported detections and low global risk. Enhanced international surveillance, the 2025 Pandemic Agreement, and rapid contact-tracing capacities have contained transmission of Ebola, mpox clusters, measles resurgences, and other pathogens without meeting pandemic thresholds of widespread, sustained community transmission across continents. A novel, highly transmissible virus or major escalation of avian influenza or hemorrhagic fever outbreaks in the final months remains the primary realistic scenario that could shift odds.