Ongoing NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring through Sentry and risk lists shows no near-Earth objects with meaningful impact probability for the remainder of 2026, with all tracked candidates carrying cumulative Palermo-scale ratings well below background levels and potential strikes confined to later decades. Recent close approaches, including multiple small bodies under 50 meters in August, have been confirmed as safe misses, while statistical models place 10-kiloton-class events at roughly 1-2% annual odds based on historical frequency. Refined orbits from additional observations, such as those clearing prior candidates, reinforce trader consensus around the strong “No” odds, with only untracked small impactors remaining as remote uncertainty. Continued surveys through year-end represent the main near-term variable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMajor meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
12% chance
$200,299 Vol.
$200,299 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
12% chance
$200,299 Vol.
$200,299 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Ongoing NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring through Sentry and risk lists shows no near-Earth objects with meaningful impact probability for the remainder of 2026, with all tracked candidates carrying cumulative Palermo-scale ratings well below background levels and potential strikes confined to later decades. Recent close approaches, including multiple small bodies under 50 meters in August, have been confirmed as safe misses, while statistical models place 10-kiloton-class events at roughly 1-2% annual odds based on historical frequency. Refined orbits from additional observations, such as those clearing prior candidates, reinforce trader consensus around the strong “No” odds, with only untracked small impactors remaining as remote uncertainty. Continued surveys through year-end represent the main near-term variable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volume
$200,299End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Ongoing NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring through Sentry and risk lists shows no near-Earth objects with meaningful impact probability for the remainder of 2026, with all tracked candidates carrying cumulative Palermo-scale ratings well below background levels and potential strikes confined to later decades. Recent close approaches, including multiple small bodies under 50 meters in August, have been confirmed as safe misses, while statistical models place 10-kiloton-class events at roughly 1-2% annual odds based on historical frequency. Refined orbits from additional observations, such as those clearing prior candidates, reinforce trader consensus around the strong “No” odds, with only untracked small impactors remaining as remote uncertainty. Continued surveys through year-end represent the main near-term variable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$200,349End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring through Sentry and risk lists shows no near-Earth objects with meaningful impact probability for the remainder of 2026, with all tracked candidates carrying cumulative Palermo-scale ratings well below background levels and potential strikes confined to later decades. Recent close approaches, including multiple small bodies under 50 meters in August, have been confirmed as safe misses, while statistical models place 10-kiloton-class events at roughly 1-2% annual odds based on historical frequency. Refined orbits from additional observations, such as those clearing prior candidates, reinforce trader consensus around the strong “No” odds, with only untracked small impactors remaining as remote uncertainty. Continued surveys through year-end represent the main near-term variable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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