**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 88.5% because 10kt+ atmospheric impacts remain statistically rare, with historical rates indicating such events occur only once every several decades on average.** NASA's Near-Earth Object monitoring and ground-based surveys have identified no objects on collision courses for the remainder of 2026, while recent close approaches and fireballs (including smaller bolides tracked in 2025–2026) have stayed well below the energy threshold. Continuous surveillance by CNEOS and similar systems, combined with roughly four months left in the year and no verified detections exceeding 10kt in NASA’s Fireball repository, underpins the market-implied odds. Key upcoming catalysts include any new large-NEO discoveries or updated orbital data that could alter trajectories, though current planetary-defense capabilities make a surprise event improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMajor meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
12% chance
$200,275 Vol.
$200,275 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
12% chance
$200,275 Vol.
$200,275 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 88.5% because 10kt+ atmospheric impacts remain statistically rare, with historical rates indicating such events occur only once every several decades on average.** NASA's Near-Earth Object monitoring and ground-based surveys have identified no objects on collision courses for the remainder of 2026, while recent close approaches and fireballs (including smaller bolides tracked in 2025–2026) have stayed well below the energy threshold. Continuous surveillance by CNEOS and similar systems, combined with roughly four months left in the year and no verified detections exceeding 10kt in NASA’s Fireball repository, underpins the market-implied odds. Key upcoming catalysts include any new large-NEO discoveries or updated orbital data that could alter trajectories, though current planetary-defense capabilities make a surprise event improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volume
$200,275End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 88.5% because 10kt+ atmospheric impacts remain statistically rare, with historical rates indicating such events occur only once every several decades on average.** NASA's Near-Earth Object monitoring and ground-based surveys have identified no objects on collision courses for the remainder of 2026, while recent close approaches and fireballs (including smaller bolides tracked in 2025–2026) have stayed well below the energy threshold. Continuous surveillance by CNEOS and similar systems, combined with roughly four months left in the year and no verified detections exceeding 10kt in NASA’s Fireball repository, underpins the market-implied odds. Key upcoming catalysts include any new large-NEO discoveries or updated orbital data that could alter trajectories, though current planetary-defense capabilities make a surprise event improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$200,275End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 88.5% because 10kt+ atmospheric impacts remain statistically rare, with historical rates indicating such events occur only once every several decades on average.** NASA's Near-Earth Object monitoring and ground-based surveys have identified no objects on collision courses for the remainder of 2026, while recent close approaches and fireballs (including smaller bolides tracked in 2025–2026) have stayed well below the energy threshold. Continuous surveillance by CNEOS and similar systems, combined with roughly four months left in the year and no verified detections exceeding 10kt in NASA’s Fireball repository, underpins the market-implied odds. Key upcoming catalysts include any new large-NEO discoveries or updated orbital data that could alter trajectories, though current planetary-defense capabilities make a surprise event improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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