**Marine Le Pen’s July 2026 appeal-court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction in the European Parliament assistants case but sharply reduced penalties, leaving her eligible for the 2027 presidential race while imposing one year under electronic monitoring.** Le Pen immediately filed a pourvoi en cassation, which suspends execution of the sentence—including any ankle-bracelet requirement—under French procedure. The Cour de Cassation has committed to a decision by April 2027 at latest, before the first-round vote. Judicial sources confirm that even an adverse final ruling would face further procedural delays: assignment to a juge d’application des peines, determination of residence and exit hours, and physical installation of the device typically require months and would not be rushed into the campaign period. These timelines, combined with the automatic suspension from the cassation appeal, underpin traders’ 83 % assessment that Le Pen will campaign without an ankle monitor before the election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated17% chance
NEW
NEW
Apr 17, 2027
17% chance
NEW
NEW
Apr 17, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Marine Le Pen wears a court-ordered or legally imposed electronic monitoring device at any time between market creation and April 17, 2027, at 11:59 PM Paris time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve solely based on whether Marine Le Pen actually wears a court-ordered or legally imposed electronic monitoring device during the specified time frame, regardless of any pending or future appeal, outstanding sentence, change to her candidacy or eligibility status, or other legal proceeding or formality.
Fitness monitoring devices, smartwatches, or other similar consumer-grade wearable technology will not qualify. A brief fitting, test, demonstration, or other non-compulsory use of an electronic monitoring device will not qualify unless Le Pen wears the device as part of an active electronic monitoring measure imposed by a court or other competent legal authority.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Marine Le Pen’s July 2026 appeal-court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction in the European Parliament assistants case but sharply reduced penalties, leaving her eligible for the 2027 presidential race while imposing one year under electronic monitoring.** Le Pen immediately filed a pourvoi en cassation, which suspends execution of the sentence—including any ankle-bracelet requirement—under French procedure. The Cour de Cassation has committed to a decision by April 2027 at latest, before the first-round vote. Judicial sources confirm that even an adverse final ruling would face further procedural delays: assignment to a juge d’application des peines, determination of residence and exit hours, and physical installation of the device typically require months and would not be rushed into the campaign period. These timelines, combined with the automatic suspension from the cassation appeal, underpin traders’ 83 % assessment that Le Pen will campaign without an ankle monitor before the election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Marine Le Pen wears a court-ordered or legally imposed electronic monitoring device at any time between market creation and April 17, 2027, at 11:59 PM Paris time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve solely based on whether Marine Le Pen actually wears a court-ordered or legally imposed electronic monitoring device during the specified time frame, regardless of any pending or future appeal, outstanding sentence, change to her candidacy or eligibility status, or other legal proceeding or formality.
Fitness monitoring devices, smartwatches, or other similar consumer-grade wearable technology will not qualify. A brief fitting, test, demonstration, or other non-compulsory use of an electronic monitoring device will not qualify unless Le Pen wears the device as part of an active electronic monitoring measure imposed by a court or other competent legal authority.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve solely based on whether Marine Le Pen actually wears a court-ordered or legally imposed electronic monitoring device during the specified time frame, regardless of any pending or future appeal, outstanding sentence, change to her candidacy or eligibility status, or other legal proceeding or formality.
Fitness monitoring devices, smartwatches, or other similar consumer-grade wearable technology will not qualify. A brief fitting, test, demonstration, or other non-compulsory use of an electronic monitoring device will not qualify unless Le Pen wears the device as part of an active electronic monitoring measure imposed by a court or other competent legal authority.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 9, 2026, 9:37 AM ET
Volume
$2,035End Date
Apr 17, 2027Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 9:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Marine Le Pen wears a court-ordered or legally imposed electronic monitoring device at any time between market creation and April 17, 2027, at 11:59 PM Paris time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve solely based on whether Marine Le Pen actually wears a court-ordered or legally imposed electronic monitoring device during the specified time frame, regardless of any pending or future appeal, outstanding sentence, change to her candidacy or eligibility status, or other legal proceeding or formality.
Fitness monitoring devices, smartwatches, or other similar consumer-grade wearable technology will not qualify. A brief fitting, test, demonstration, or other non-compulsory use of an electronic monitoring device will not qualify unless Le Pen wears the device as part of an active electronic monitoring measure imposed by a court or other competent legal authority.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Marine Le Pen’s July 2026 appeal-court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction in the European Parliament assistants case but sharply reduced penalties, leaving her eligible for the 2027 presidential race while imposing one year under electronic monitoring.** Le Pen immediately filed a pourvoi en cassation, which suspends execution of the sentence—including any ankle-bracelet requirement—under French procedure. The Cour de Cassation has committed to a decision by April 2027 at latest, before the first-round vote. Judicial sources confirm that even an adverse final ruling would face further procedural delays: assignment to a juge d’application des peines, determination of residence and exit hours, and physical installation of the device typically require months and would not be rushed into the campaign period. These timelines, combined with the automatic suspension from the cassation appeal, underpin traders’ 83 % assessment that Le Pen will campaign without an ankle monitor before the election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Marine Le Pen wears a court-ordered or legally imposed electronic monitoring device at any time between market creation and April 17, 2027, at 11:59 PM Paris time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve solely based on whether Marine Le Pen actually wears a court-ordered or legally imposed electronic monitoring device during the specified time frame, regardless of any pending or future appeal, outstanding sentence, change to her candidacy or eligibility status, or other legal proceeding or formality.
Fitness monitoring devices, smartwatches, or other similar consumer-grade wearable technology will not qualify. A brief fitting, test, demonstration, or other non-compulsory use of an electronic monitoring device will not qualify unless Le Pen wears the device as part of an active electronic monitoring measure imposed by a court or other competent legal authority.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve solely based on whether Marine Le Pen actually wears a court-ordered or legally imposed electronic monitoring device during the specified time frame, regardless of any pending or future appeal, outstanding sentence, change to her candidacy or eligibility status, or other legal proceeding or formality.
Fitness monitoring devices, smartwatches, or other similar consumer-grade wearable technology will not qualify. A brief fitting, test, demonstration, or other non-compulsory use of an electronic monitoring device will not qualify unless Le Pen wears the device as part of an active electronic monitoring measure imposed by a court or other competent legal authority.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,035End Date
Apr 17, 2027Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 9:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Marine Le Pen’s July 2026 appeal-court ruling upheld her embezzlement conviction in the European Parliament assistants case but sharply reduced penalties, leaving her eligible for the 2027 presidential race while imposing one year under electronic monitoring.** Le Pen immediately filed a pourvoi en cassation, which suspends execution of the sentence—including any ankle-bracelet requirement—under French procedure. The Cour de Cassation has committed to a decision by April 2027 at latest, before the first-round vote. Judicial sources confirm that even an adverse final ruling would face further procedural delays: assignment to a juge d’application des peines, determination of residence and exit hours, and physical installation of the device typically require months and would not be rushed into the campaign period. These timelines, combined with the automatic suspension from the cassation appeal, underpin traders’ 83 % assessment that Le Pen will campaign without an ankle monitor before the election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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