Moonshot AI’s aggressive release cadence—shipping major Kimi updates every 1–3 months since mid-2025—forms the core driver of trader expectations for Kimi K4 following the July 16, 2026 launch of the 2.8-trillion-parameter K3 model. K3 quickly reached frontier performance on specialized benchmarks like frontend coding and writing Elo, narrowing the gap with models such as Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol while offering open weights and lower pricing. With K2.7 Code arriving just weeks earlier and no official K4 signals or leaks as of late August 2026, markets price in moderate odds of a public release by year-end, reflecting both historical momentum and typical frontier-model development timelines that can shift with compute constraints or competitive responses from U.S. labs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$14,887 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31, 2026
2%
December 31, 2026
9%
$14,887 Vol.
October 31, 2026
$8,672 Vol.
2%
December 31, 2026
$6,214 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s aggressive release cadence—shipping major Kimi updates every 1–3 months since mid-2025—forms the core driver of trader expectations for Kimi K4 following the July 16, 2026 launch of the 2.8-trillion-parameter K3 model. K3 quickly reached frontier performance on specialized benchmarks like frontend coding and writing Elo, narrowing the gap with models such as Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol while offering open weights and lower pricing. With K2.7 Code arriving just weeks earlier and no official K4 signals or leaks as of late August 2026, markets price in moderate odds of a public release by year-end, reflecting both historical momentum and typical frontier-model development timelines that can shift with compute constraints or competitive responses from U.S. labs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Volume
$14,887End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s aggressive release cadence—shipping major Kimi updates every 1–3 months since mid-2025—forms the core driver of trader expectations for Kimi K4 following the July 16, 2026 launch of the 2.8-trillion-parameter K3 model. K3 quickly reached frontier performance on specialized benchmarks like frontend coding and writing Elo, narrowing the gap with models such as Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol while offering open weights and lower pricing. With K2.7 Code arriving just weeks earlier and no official K4 signals or leaks as of late August 2026, markets price in moderate odds of a public release by year-end, reflecting both historical momentum and typical frontier-model development timelines that can shift with compute constraints or competitive responses from U.S. labs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$14,887End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI’s aggressive release cadence—shipping major Kimi updates every 1–3 months since mid-2025—forms the core driver of trader expectations for Kimi K4 following the July 16, 2026 launch of the 2.8-trillion-parameter K3 model. K3 quickly reached frontier performance on specialized benchmarks like frontend coding and writing Elo, narrowing the gap with models such as Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol while offering open weights and lower pricing. With K2.7 Code arriving just weeks earlier and no official K4 signals or leaks as of late August 2026, markets price in moderate odds of a public release by year-end, reflecting both historical momentum and typical frontier-model development timelines that can shift with compute constraints or competitive responses from U.S. labs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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