Japan’s Q3 2026 GDP (QoQ annualized) market shows closely matched probabilities between the 0.8–1.6% band (24.5%) and the -0.8–0.0% range (21.0%), reflecting uncertainty after Q2’s 1.1% annualized print missed forecasts due to flat private consumption and a 1.2% contraction in capital expenditure. Persistent energy-price pressures from the Middle East conflict, the late-July Kumamoto earthquake’s supply disruptions, and the Bank of Japan’s 1% policy rate—amid Tokyo core CPI accelerating to 1.8%—are weighing on domestic demand, while resilient AI-related exports, government energy subsidies, and wage gains provide partial support. Traders are therefore pricing a narrow range of outcomes pending September data releases and the BOJ’s policy decision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.8%–1.6% 25%
-0.8%–0.0% 21%
1.6%–2.4% 11.6%
0.0%–0.8% 11%
$22,263 Vol.
$22,263 Vol.
Nov 15, 2026
<-2.4%
1%
-2.4%– -1.6%
6%
-1.6%– -0.8%
5%
-0.8%–0.0%
21%
0.0%–0.8%
11%
0.8%–1.6%
25%
1.6%–2.4%
12%
2.4%–3.2%
6%
3.2%–4.0%
3%
4.0%+
1%
0.8%–1.6% 25%
-0.8%–0.0% 21%
1.6%–2.4% 11.6%
0.0%–0.8% 11%
$22,263 Vol.
$22,263 Vol.
Nov 15, 2026
<-2.4%
$225 Vol.
1%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$3,031 Vol.
6%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$246 Vol.
5%
-0.8%–0.0%
$1,941 Vol.
21%
0.0%–0.8%
$10,008 Vol.
11%
0.8%–1.6%
$1,586 Vol.
25%
1.6%–2.4%
$591 Vol.
12%
2.4%–3.2%
$3,220 Vol.
6%
3.2%–4.0%
$907 Vol.
3%
4.0%+
$506 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan’s Q3 2026 GDP (QoQ annualized) market shows closely matched probabilities between the 0.8–1.6% band (24.5%) and the -0.8–0.0% range (21.0%), reflecting uncertainty after Q2’s 1.1% annualized print missed forecasts due to flat private consumption and a 1.2% contraction in capital expenditure. Persistent energy-price pressures from the Middle East conflict, the late-July Kumamoto earthquake’s supply disruptions, and the Bank of Japan’s 1% policy rate—amid Tokyo core CPI accelerating to 1.8%—are weighing on domestic demand, while resilient AI-related exports, government energy subsidies, and wage gains provide partial support. Traders are therefore pricing a narrow range of outcomes pending September data releases and the BOJ’s policy decision.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ET
Volume
$22,263End Date
Nov 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan’s Q3 2026 GDP (QoQ annualized) market shows closely matched probabilities between the 0.8–1.6% band (24.5%) and the -0.8–0.0% range (21.0%), reflecting uncertainty after Q2’s 1.1% annualized print missed forecasts due to flat private consumption and a 1.2% contraction in capital expenditure. Persistent energy-price pressures from the Middle East conflict, the late-July Kumamoto earthquake’s supply disruptions, and the Bank of Japan’s 1% policy rate—amid Tokyo core CPI accelerating to 1.8%—are weighing on domestic demand, while resilient AI-related exports, government energy subsidies, and wage gains provide partial support. Traders are therefore pricing a narrow range of outcomes pending September data releases and the BOJ’s policy decision.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volume
$22,263End Date
Nov 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Japan’s Q3 2026 GDP (QoQ annualized) market shows closely matched probabilities between the 0.8–1.6% band (24.5%) and the -0.8–0.0% range (21.0%), reflecting uncertainty after Q2’s 1.1% annualized print missed forecasts due to flat private consumption and a 1.2% contraction in capital expenditure. Persistent energy-price pressures from the Middle East conflict, the late-July Kumamoto earthquake’s supply disruptions, and the Bank of Japan’s 1% policy rate—amid Tokyo core CPI accelerating to 1.8%—are weighing on domestic demand, while resilient AI-related exports, government energy subsidies, and wage gains provide partial support. Traders are therefore pricing a narrow range of outcomes pending September data releases and the BOJ’s policy decision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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