Idaho’s entrenched Republican lean, shown by consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent Senate races and Donald Trump’s 2024 statewide performance, underpins trader consensus around a 96% implied probability for the Republican nominee. Incumbent Jim Risch secured renomination with 67% in the May primary and faces limited opposition after the Democratic nominee withdrew in July, leaving independent Todd Achilles as the leading challenger. Recent polls generally show Risch ahead by double digits, though one survey found a narrower contest. Low Democratic infrastructure, absence of a Democratic Senate victory in the state since 1974, and Risch’s fundraising position reinforce the current pricing. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national swing could still narrow the outcome before the November 3 election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$32,208 Vol.
$32,208 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican
96%
Democrat
2%
$32,208 Vol.
$32,208 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican
$17,912 Vol.
96%
Democrat
$14,296 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Idaho’s entrenched Republican lean, shown by consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent Senate races and Donald Trump’s 2024 statewide performance, underpins trader consensus around a 96% implied probability for the Republican nominee. Incumbent Jim Risch secured renomination with 67% in the May primary and faces limited opposition after the Democratic nominee withdrew in July, leaving independent Todd Achilles as the leading challenger. Recent polls generally show Risch ahead by double digits, though one survey found a narrower contest. Low Democratic infrastructure, absence of a Democratic Senate victory in the state since 1974, and Risch’s fundraising position reinforce the current pricing. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national swing could still narrow the outcome before the November 3 election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$32,208End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Idaho’s entrenched Republican lean, shown by consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent Senate races and Donald Trump’s 2024 statewide performance, underpins trader consensus around a 96% implied probability for the Republican nominee. Incumbent Jim Risch secured renomination with 67% in the May primary and faces limited opposition after the Democratic nominee withdrew in July, leaving independent Todd Achilles as the leading challenger. Recent polls generally show Risch ahead by double digits, though one survey found a narrower contest. Low Democratic infrastructure, absence of a Democratic Senate victory in the state since 1974, and Risch’s fundraising position reinforce the current pricing. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national swing could still narrow the outcome before the November 3 election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$32,208End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Idaho’s entrenched Republican lean, shown by consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent Senate races and Donald Trump’s 2024 statewide performance, underpins trader consensus around a 96% implied probability for the Republican nominee. Incumbent Jim Risch secured renomination with 67% in the May primary and faces limited opposition after the Democratic nominee withdrew in July, leaving independent Todd Achilles as the leading challenger. Recent polls generally show Risch ahead by double digits, though one survey found a narrower contest. Low Democratic infrastructure, absence of a Democratic Senate victory in the state since 1974, and Risch’s fundraising position reinforce the current pricing. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national swing could still narrow the outcome before the November 3 election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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