Recent satellite observations and official analyses from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency and JTWC confirm that Tropical Storm Saudel rapidly intensified to Category 4-equivalent winds exceeding 115 knots before weakening near the Ryukyu Islands and making landfall in China’s Zhejiang Province. This established peak intensity underpins the overwhelming market consensus for a Very Strong Typhoon outcome. Model consensus had consistently supported further strengthening in favorable sea-surface temperatures and low wind shear environments during its northwestward track across the Philippine Sea. Resolution hinges on final verified maximum sustained winds; minor downward revisions in post-storm reanalysis or differing agency thresholds represent the only realistic paths to an alternative classification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow strong will Tropical Storm Saudel get?
How strong will Tropical Storm Saudel get?
Very Strong Typhoon 99.4%
Violent Typhoon <1%
Tropical Storm <1%
Severe Tropical Storm <1%
$10,020 Vol.
$10,020 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Tropical Storm
<1%
Severe Tropical Storm
<1%
Typhoon
<1%
Very Strong Typhoon
99%
Violent Typhoon
<1%
Very Strong Typhoon 99.4%
Violent Typhoon <1%
Tropical Storm <1%
Severe Tropical Storm <1%
$10,020 Vol.
$10,020 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Tropical Storm
$663 Vol.
<1%
Severe Tropical Storm
$606 Vol.
<1%
Typhoon
$1,570 Vol.
<1%
Very Strong Typhoon
$3,228 Vol.
99%
Violent Typhoon
$3,953 Vol.
<1%
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Recent satellite observations and official analyses from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency and JTWC confirm that Tropical Storm Saudel rapidly intensified to Category 4-equivalent winds exceeding 115 knots before weakening near the Ryukyu Islands and making landfall in China’s Zhejiang Province. This established peak intensity underpins the overwhelming market consensus for a Very Strong Typhoon outcome. Model consensus had consistently supported further strengthening in favorable sea-surface temperatures and low wind shear environments during its northwestward track across the Philippine Sea. Resolution hinges on final verified maximum sustained winds; minor downward revisions in post-storm reanalysis or differing agency thresholds represent the only realistic paths to an alternative classification.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ET
Volume
$10,020End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Recent satellite observations and official analyses from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency and JTWC confirm that Tropical Storm Saudel rapidly intensified to Category 4-equivalent winds exceeding 115 knots before weakening near the Ryukyu Islands and making landfall in China’s Zhejiang Province. This established peak intensity underpins the overwhelming market consensus for a Very Strong Typhoon outcome. Model consensus had consistently supported further strengthening in favorable sea-surface temperatures and low wind shear environments during its northwestward track across the Philippine Sea. Resolution hinges on final verified maximum sustained winds; minor downward revisions in post-storm reanalysis or differing agency thresholds represent the only realistic paths to an alternative classification.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Volume
$10,020End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent satellite observations and official analyses from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency and JTWC confirm that Tropical Storm Saudel rapidly intensified to Category 4-equivalent winds exceeding 115 knots before weakening near the Ryukyu Islands and making landfall in China’s Zhejiang Province. This established peak intensity underpins the overwhelming market consensus for a Very Strong Typhoon outcome. Model consensus had consistently supported further strengthening in favorable sea-surface temperatures and low wind shear environments during its northwestward track across the Philippine Sea. Resolution hinges on final verified maximum sustained winds; minor downward revisions in post-storm reanalysis or differing agency thresholds represent the only realistic paths to an alternative classification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions