**As of late August 2026, 37 Republican House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, aligning closely with the market's dominant 36–39 range at 91.3%.** Most decisions occurred between late 2025 and mid-2026, including retirements by senior members such as Sam Graves, Darrell Issa, Vern Buchanan, and Neal Dunn, alongside others pursuing Senate seats, governorships, or other offices amid redistricting in states like Utah and Texas. This pace exceeds recent cycles and reflects the party's slim majority plus the typical midterm pressures on the president's party. With primaries largely complete and filing deadlines approaching in many states, few additional departures are expected before November. Late reversals by announced retirees or a surge of new exits in the final weeks remain the main scenarios that could shift the total outside the current bracket.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Republican House members not running in 2026?
How many Republican House members not running in 2026?
36–39 91.9%
40–43 2.7%
44+ 1.5%
<24 1.5%
$72,747 Vol.
$72,747 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<24
1%
24–27
1%
28–31
<1%
32–35
1%
36–39
92%
40–43
3%
44+
2%
36–39 91.9%
40–43 2.7%
44+ 1.5%
<24 1.5%
$72,747 Vol.
$72,747 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<24
$6,266 Vol.
1%
24–27
$20,188 Vol.
1%
28–31
$23,648 Vol.
<1%
32–35
$6,284 Vol.
1%
36–39
$8,437 Vol.
92%
40–43
$4,311 Vol.
3%
44+
$3,613 Vol.
2%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**As of late August 2026, 37 Republican House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, aligning closely with the market's dominant 36–39 range at 91.3%.** Most decisions occurred between late 2025 and mid-2026, including retirements by senior members such as Sam Graves, Darrell Issa, Vern Buchanan, and Neal Dunn, alongside others pursuing Senate seats, governorships, or other offices amid redistricting in states like Utah and Texas. This pace exceeds recent cycles and reflects the party's slim majority plus the typical midterm pressures on the president's party. With primaries largely complete and filing deadlines approaching in many states, few additional departures are expected before November. Late reversals by announced retirees or a surge of new exits in the final weeks remain the main scenarios that could shift the total outside the current bracket.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$72,747End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**As of late August 2026, 37 Republican House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, aligning closely with the market's dominant 36–39 range at 91.3%.** Most decisions occurred between late 2025 and mid-2026, including retirements by senior members such as Sam Graves, Darrell Issa, Vern Buchanan, and Neal Dunn, alongside others pursuing Senate seats, governorships, or other offices amid redistricting in states like Utah and Texas. This pace exceeds recent cycles and reflects the party's slim majority plus the typical midterm pressures on the president's party. With primaries largely complete and filing deadlines approaching in many states, few additional departures are expected before November. Late reversals by announced retirees or a surge of new exits in the final weeks remain the main scenarios that could shift the total outside the current bracket.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$72,747End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**As of late August 2026, 37 Republican House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, aligning closely with the market's dominant 36–39 range at 91.3%.** Most decisions occurred between late 2025 and mid-2026, including retirements by senior members such as Sam Graves, Darrell Issa, Vern Buchanan, and Neal Dunn, alongside others pursuing Senate seats, governorships, or other offices amid redistricting in states like Utah and Texas. This pace exceeds recent cycles and reflects the party's slim majority plus the typical midterm pressures on the president's party. With primaries largely complete and filing deadlines approaching in many states, few additional departures are expected before November. Late reversals by announced retirees or a surge of new exits in the final weeks remain the main scenarios that could shift the total outside the current bracket.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions