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Geopolitics·Immigration

How many people will Trump deport in 2026?

icon for How many people will Trump deport in 2026?
Geopolitics·Immigration

How many people will Trump deport in 2026?

Dec 31

Dec 31

400-500k 64%

300-400k 18%

500-600k 8.8%

>1m 2.0%

Polymarket

$122,772 Vol.

400-500k 64%

300-400k 18%

500-600k 8.8%

>1m 2.0%

Polymarket

$122,772 Vol.

<200k

$10,186 Vol.

2%

200-300k

$9,662 Vol.

<1%

300-400k

$14,921 Vol.

18%

400-500k

$7,732 Vol.

66%

500-600k

$6,342 Vol.

9%

600-700k

$5,661 Vol.

2%

700-800k

$41,856 Vol.

1%

800-900k

$12,774 Vol.

1%

900k-1m

$6,547 Vol.

1%

>1m

$7,091 Vol.

2%

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.The Trump administration’s expanded interior enforcement operations, including record ICE arrests and detentions reaching new highs in July 2026, combined with doubled personnel capacity and a stated goal of one million annual removals, have positioned trader consensus around 400-500k official deportations for the calendar year. Fiscal year 2026 removals already exceed 350,000 through mid-year, with officials signaling further acceleration beyond 2025 totals amid reduced border encounters that allow reallocation of resources. Persistent court challenges, habeas petitions, and capacity constraints introduce downside risks, while sustained funding and state-local cooperation support upside potential within the leading range.

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year.

The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$122,772
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 11:41 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.The Trump administration’s expanded interior enforcement operations, including record ICE arrests and detentions reaching new highs in July 2026, combined with doubled personnel capacity and a stated goal of one million annual removals, have positioned trader consensus around 400-500k official deportations for the calendar year. Fiscal year 2026 removals already exceed 350,000 through mid-year, with officials signaling further acceleration beyond 2025 totals amid reduced border encounters that allow reallocation of resources. Persistent court challenges, habeas petitions, and capacity constraints introduce downside risks, while sustained funding and state-local cooperation support upside potential within the leading range.

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year.

The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$122,772
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 11:41 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many people will Trump deport in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "400-500k" at 66%, followed by "300-400k" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 66¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 66% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many people will Trump deport in 2026?" has generated $122.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many people will Trump deport in 2026?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many people will Trump deport in 2026?" is "400-500k" at 66%, meaning the market assigns a 66% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "300-400k" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many people will Trump deport in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.