**Israeli politics centers on coalition-building in the 120-seat Knesset, where 61 seats are required for a majority.** The Knesset dissolved on July 17, 2026, after completing a full term—the first since 1988—setting legislative elections for October 27. Current polling averages project Netanyahu’s Likud-led bloc at roughly 49–52 seats and the main opposition camp near 56–60, leaving both short of a majority and dependent on smaller parties, including Arab lists, for any workable coalition. Trader consensus prices a single election at 77 percent, reflecting expectations that post-election negotiations will produce a government despite fragmentation and longstanding reluctance among some opposition factions to align with Netanyahu. A second round carries 21.5 percent odds, consistent with Israel’s recent history of repeated votes when initial coalitions fail. Higher outcomes remain marginal given the scheduled timeline and absence of immediate triggers for further dissolution. Upcoming coalition talks after October 27 represent the primary near-term catalyst that could shift these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1 78%
2 22%
3 1.3%
0 <1%
$16,362 Vol.
$16,362 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
0
<1%
1
78%
2
22%
3
1%
4
<1%
5+
<1%
1 78%
2 22%
3 1.3%
0 <1%
$16,362 Vol.
$16,362 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
0
$575 Vol.
<1%
1
$10,878 Vol.
78%
2
$2,644 Vol.
22%
3
$1,046 Vol.
1%
4
$588 Vol.
<1%
5+
$632 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of Israeli legislative elections that occur between market creation and the formation of a government in the Knesset or December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes earlier.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of elections that occur, where occurrence is defined as nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel. Publication of an election’s results will have no bearing on this market.
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the dates of general election-day voting will count.
A government will be considered formed if it passes a vote of confidence in the Knesset.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Israeli politics centers on coalition-building in the 120-seat Knesset, where 61 seats are required for a majority.** The Knesset dissolved on July 17, 2026, after completing a full term—the first since 1988—setting legislative elections for October 27. Current polling averages project Netanyahu’s Likud-led bloc at roughly 49–52 seats and the main opposition camp near 56–60, leaving both short of a majority and dependent on smaller parties, including Arab lists, for any workable coalition.
Trader consensus prices a single election at 77 percent, reflecting expectations that post-election negotiations will produce a government despite fragmentation and longstanding reluctance among some opposition factions to align with Netanyahu. A second round carries 21.5 percent odds, consistent with Israel’s recent history of repeated votes when initial coalitions fail. Higher outcomes remain marginal given the scheduled timeline and absence of immediate triggers for further dissolution. Upcoming coalition talks after October 27 represent the primary near-term catalyst that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the number of Israeli legislative elections that occur between market creation and the formation of a government in the Knesset or December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes earlier.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of elections that occur, where occurrence is defined as nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel. Publication of an election’s results will have no bearing on this market.
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the dates of general election-day voting will count.
A government will be considered formed if it passes a vote of confidence in the Knesset.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of elections that occur, where occurrence is defined as nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel. Publication of an election’s results will have no bearing on this market.
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the dates of general election-day voting will count.
A government will be considered formed if it passes a vote of confidence in the Knesset.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 6:10 PM ET
Volume
$16,362End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of Israeli legislative elections that occur between market creation and the formation of a government in the Knesset or December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes earlier.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of elections that occur, where occurrence is defined as nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel. Publication of an election’s results will have no bearing on this market.
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the dates of general election-day voting will count.
A government will be considered formed if it passes a vote of confidence in the Knesset.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Israeli politics centers on coalition-building in the 120-seat Knesset, where 61 seats are required for a majority.** The Knesset dissolved on July 17, 2026, after completing a full term—the first since 1988—setting legislative elections for October 27. Current polling averages project Netanyahu’s Likud-led bloc at roughly 49–52 seats and the main opposition camp near 56–60, leaving both short of a majority and dependent on smaller parties, including Arab lists, for any workable coalition.
Trader consensus prices a single election at 77 percent, reflecting expectations that post-election negotiations will produce a government despite fragmentation and longstanding reluctance among some opposition factions to align with Netanyahu. A second round carries 21.5 percent odds, consistent with Israel’s recent history of repeated votes when initial coalitions fail. Higher outcomes remain marginal given the scheduled timeline and absence of immediate triggers for further dissolution. Upcoming coalition talks after October 27 represent the primary near-term catalyst that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the number of Israeli legislative elections that occur between market creation and the formation of a government in the Knesset or December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes earlier.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of elections that occur, where occurrence is defined as nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel. Publication of an election’s results will have no bearing on this market.
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the dates of general election-day voting will count.
A government will be considered formed if it passes a vote of confidence in the Knesset.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of elections that occur, where occurrence is defined as nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel. Publication of an election’s results will have no bearing on this market.
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the dates of general election-day voting will count.
A government will be considered formed if it passes a vote of confidence in the Knesset.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$16,362End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Israeli politics centers on coalition-building in the 120-seat Knesset, where 61 seats are required for a majority.** The Knesset dissolved on July 17, 2026, after completing a full term—the first since 1988—setting legislative elections for October 27. Current polling averages project Netanyahu’s Likud-led bloc at roughly 49–52 seats and the main opposition camp near 56–60, leaving both short of a majority and dependent on smaller parties, including Arab lists, for any workable coalition. Trader consensus prices a single election at 77 percent, reflecting expectations that post-election negotiations will produce a government despite fragmentation and longstanding reluctance among some opposition factions to align with Netanyahu. A second round carries 21.5 percent odds, consistent with Israel’s recent history of repeated votes when initial coalitions fail. Higher outcomes remain marginal given the scheduled timeline and absence of immediate triggers for further dissolution. Upcoming coalition talks after October 27 represent the primary near-term catalyst that could shift these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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