**Hengam Island remains under Iranian control amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz tensions following the 2026 U.S.-Iran military exchanges.** U.S. projectiles struck targets on the island in mid-July 2026 as part of broader operations against Iranian military infrastructure, including air defenses, missile facilities, and coastal positions near Qeshm and other Gulf islands. These actions followed earlier phases of the conflict that began in February/March 2026 and a June memorandum of understanding establishing a 60-day negotiation window. Iran has continued to assert full sovereignty over Hengam and adjacent strategic islands used by the IRGC Navy for Hormuz defenses. Recent developments include Iranian naval enforcement actions, tanker detentions, and post-ceasefire military reorganization under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, with no verified reports of occupation, handover, or loss of governmental/military authority to another state or force. Market-implied probabilities for any change by late August or September remain very low, reflecting the absence of amphibious operations or territorial seizures despite U.S. strikes and diplomatic pressure on navigation rules. Key variables for traders include whether future escalation produces sustained foreign control, the status of Hormuz negotiations with Oman and others, and any official announcements confirming altered administration. Historical precedent shows Iranian islands in the region have withstood strikes without sovereignty shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$121,849 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
$121,849 Vol.
August 31
$94,301 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.**Hengam Island remains under Iranian control amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz tensions following the 2026 U.S.-Iran military exchanges.** U.S. projectiles struck targets on the island in mid-July 2026 as part of broader operations against Iranian military infrastructure, including air defenses, missile facilities, and coastal positions near Qeshm and other Gulf islands. These actions followed earlier phases of the conflict that began in February/March 2026 and a June memorandum of understanding establishing a 60-day negotiation window.
Iran has continued to assert full sovereignty over Hengam and adjacent strategic islands used by the IRGC Navy for Hormuz defenses. Recent developments include Iranian naval enforcement actions, tanker detentions, and post-ceasefire military reorganization under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, with no verified reports of occupation, handover, or loss of governmental/military authority to another state or force. Market-implied probabilities for any change by late August or September remain very low, reflecting the absence of amphibious operations or territorial seizures despite U.S. strikes and diplomatic pressure on navigation rules.
Key variables for traders include whether future escalation produces sustained foreign control, the status of Hormuz negotiations with Oman and others, and any official announcements confirming altered administration. Historical precedent shows Iranian islands in the region have withstood strikes without sovereignty shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Volume
$121,849End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.**Hengam Island remains under Iranian control amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz tensions following the 2026 U.S.-Iran military exchanges.** U.S. projectiles struck targets on the island in mid-July 2026 as part of broader operations against Iranian military infrastructure, including air defenses, missile facilities, and coastal positions near Qeshm and other Gulf islands. These actions followed earlier phases of the conflict that began in February/March 2026 and a June memorandum of understanding establishing a 60-day negotiation window.
Iran has continued to assert full sovereignty over Hengam and adjacent strategic islands used by the IRGC Navy for Hormuz defenses. Recent developments include Iranian naval enforcement actions, tanker detentions, and post-ceasefire military reorganization under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, with no verified reports of occupation, handover, or loss of governmental/military authority to another state or force. Market-implied probabilities for any change by late August or September remain very low, reflecting the absence of amphibious operations or territorial seizures despite U.S. strikes and diplomatic pressure on navigation rules.
Key variables for traders include whether future escalation produces sustained foreign control, the status of Hormuz negotiations with Oman and others, and any official announcements confirming altered administration. Historical precedent shows Iranian islands in the region have withstood strikes without sovereignty shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$121,849End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Hengam Island remains under Iranian control amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz tensions following the 2026 U.S.-Iran military exchanges.** U.S. projectiles struck targets on the island in mid-July 2026 as part of broader operations against Iranian military infrastructure, including air defenses, missile facilities, and coastal positions near Qeshm and other Gulf islands. These actions followed earlier phases of the conflict that began in February/March 2026 and a June memorandum of understanding establishing a 60-day negotiation window. Iran has continued to assert full sovereignty over Hengam and adjacent strategic islands used by the IRGC Navy for Hormuz defenses. Recent developments include Iranian naval enforcement actions, tanker detentions, and post-ceasefire military reorganization under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, with no verified reports of occupation, handover, or loss of governmental/military authority to another state or force. Market-implied probabilities for any change by late August or September remain very low, reflecting the absence of amphibious operations or territorial seizures despite U.S. strikes and diplomatic pressure on navigation rules. Key variables for traders include whether future escalation produces sustained foreign control, the status of Hormuz negotiations with Oman and others, and any official announcements confirming altered administration. Historical precedent shows Iranian islands in the region have withstood strikes without sovereignty shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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