Incumbent Republican Mario Diaz-Balart faces Democrat Nicole Locklin in Florida’s 26th congressional district on November 3, 2026, following uncontested primaries on August 18. Redistricting signed into law in May 2026 left the seat with a partisan voting index favoring Republicans by roughly seven points and a projected Trump margin near 18 points, placing it in the Solid Republican category per major forecasters. Diaz-Balart, first elected in 2002 and unopposed in the Republican primary, benefits from incumbency, established fundraising, and district fundamentals that have historically produced double-digit Republican margins. Locklin, an attorney entering her first congressional race after the Democratic primary was canceled, trails in available polling and forecasting models projecting a 14-point deficit. These structural and candidate factors underpin trader consensus around a strong Republican advantage with limited near-term catalysts expected to alter the race trajectory before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-26 House Election Winner
FL-26 House Election Winner
$64,231 Vol.
$64,231 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
90%
Democratic Party
9%
$64,231 Vol.
$64,231 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$29,646 Vol.
90%
Democratic Party
$34,585 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mario Diaz-Balart faces Democrat Nicole Locklin in Florida’s 26th congressional district on November 3, 2026, following uncontested primaries on August 18. Redistricting signed into law in May 2026 left the seat with a partisan voting index favoring Republicans by roughly seven points and a projected Trump margin near 18 points, placing it in the Solid Republican category per major forecasters. Diaz-Balart, first elected in 2002 and unopposed in the Republican primary, benefits from incumbency, established fundraising, and district fundamentals that have historically produced double-digit Republican margins. Locklin, an attorney entering her first congressional race after the Democratic primary was canceled, trails in available polling and forecasting models projecting a 14-point deficit. These structural and candidate factors underpin trader consensus around a strong Republican advantage with limited near-term catalysts expected to alter the race trajectory before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ET
Volume
$64,231End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mario Diaz-Balart faces Democrat Nicole Locklin in Florida’s 26th congressional district on November 3, 2026, following uncontested primaries on August 18. Redistricting signed into law in May 2026 left the seat with a partisan voting index favoring Republicans by roughly seven points and a projected Trump margin near 18 points, placing it in the Solid Republican category per major forecasters. Diaz-Balart, first elected in 2002 and unopposed in the Republican primary, benefits from incumbency, established fundraising, and district fundamentals that have historically produced double-digit Republican margins. Locklin, an attorney entering her first congressional race after the Democratic primary was canceled, trails in available polling and forecasting models projecting a 14-point deficit. These structural and candidate factors underpin trader consensus around a strong Republican advantage with limited near-term catalysts expected to alter the race trajectory before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$64,231End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mario Diaz-Balart faces Democrat Nicole Locklin in Florida’s 26th congressional district on November 3, 2026, following uncontested primaries on August 18. Redistricting signed into law in May 2026 left the seat with a partisan voting index favoring Republicans by roughly seven points and a projected Trump margin near 18 points, placing it in the Solid Republican category per major forecasters. Diaz-Balart, first elected in 2002 and unopposed in the Republican primary, benefits from incumbency, established fundraising, and district fundamentals that have historically produced double-digit Republican margins. Locklin, an attorney entering her first congressional race after the Democratic primary was canceled, trails in available polling and forecasting models projecting a 14-point deficit. These structural and candidate factors underpin trader consensus around a strong Republican advantage with limited near-term catalysts expected to alter the race trajectory before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions