Florida's 4th congressional district features incumbent Republican Aaron Bean facing Democratic nominee LaShonda Holloway, who secured her party's nomination in the August 18 primary with 57 percent of the vote. The district's established Republican lean, reflected in prior election margins and voter registration patterns, underpins trader consensus around an 86.5 percent probability for the Republican outcome. Bean ran unopposed in the GOP primary, preserving resources for the general election on November 3. Minor-party candidates on the ballot add limited fragmentation risk. Recent primary results clarified the matchup without introducing competitive shifts, consistent with historical base rates for this seat and the broader Florida House delegation dynamics heading into the 2026 midterms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-04 House Election Winner
FL-04 House Election Winner
$26,798 Vol.
$26,798 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
87%
Democratic Party
10%
$26,798 Vol.
$26,798 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$16,464 Vol.
87%
Democratic Party
$10,335 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 4th congressional district features incumbent Republican Aaron Bean facing Democratic nominee LaShonda Holloway, who secured her party's nomination in the August 18 primary with 57 percent of the vote. The district's established Republican lean, reflected in prior election margins and voter registration patterns, underpins trader consensus around an 86.5 percent probability for the Republican outcome. Bean ran unopposed in the GOP primary, preserving resources for the general election on November 3. Minor-party candidates on the ballot add limited fragmentation risk. Recent primary results clarified the matchup without introducing competitive shifts, consistent with historical base rates for this seat and the broader Florida House delegation dynamics heading into the 2026 midterms.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
Volume
$26,798End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 4th congressional district features incumbent Republican Aaron Bean facing Democratic nominee LaShonda Holloway, who secured her party's nomination in the August 18 primary with 57 percent of the vote. The district's established Republican lean, reflected in prior election margins and voter registration patterns, underpins trader consensus around an 86.5 percent probability for the Republican outcome. Bean ran unopposed in the GOP primary, preserving resources for the general election on November 3. Minor-party candidates on the ballot add limited fragmentation risk. Recent primary results clarified the matchup without introducing competitive shifts, consistent with historical base rates for this seat and the broader Florida House delegation dynamics heading into the 2026 midterms.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,798End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida's 4th congressional district features incumbent Republican Aaron Bean facing Democratic nominee LaShonda Holloway, who secured her party's nomination in the August 18 primary with 57 percent of the vote. The district's established Republican lean, reflected in prior election margins and voter registration patterns, underpins trader consensus around an 86.5 percent probability for the Republican outcome. Bean ran unopposed in the GOP primary, preserving resources for the general election on November 3. Minor-party candidates on the ballot add limited fragmentation risk. Recent primary results clarified the matchup without introducing competitive shifts, consistent with historical base rates for this seat and the broader Florida House delegation dynamics heading into the 2026 midterms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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