Escalating U.S.-Iran military strikes on Persian Gulf islands amid disputes over Strait of Hormuz control form the core driver of trader sentiment. Kharg Island, handling roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, has faced repeated U.S. targeting of military assets since February 2026 while oil infrastructure largely remained intact, with VLCC loadings resuming intermittently in August after prolonged halts. Hormuz, Hengam, and Farsi islands factor into IRGC positioning for potential disruptions, influencing tanker routing, dark-fleet activity, and global energy price volatility. Recent data show competing U.S. and Iranian claims on waterway access, with limited transits persisting despite blockades and diplomatic talks. Upcoming catalysts include further FOMC-adjacent risk assessments and any resolution milestones tied to oil revenue flows or sanctions relief.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$109,324 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
September 30
3%
$109,324 Vol.
August 31
$39,935 Vol.
1%
September 30
$69,389 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating U.S.-Iran military strikes on Persian Gulf islands amid disputes over Strait of Hormuz control form the core driver of trader sentiment. Kharg Island, handling roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, has faced repeated U.S. targeting of military assets since February 2026 while oil infrastructure largely remained intact, with VLCC loadings resuming intermittently in August after prolonged halts. Hormuz, Hengam, and Farsi islands factor into IRGC positioning for potential disruptions, influencing tanker routing, dark-fleet activity, and global energy price volatility. Recent data show competing U.S. and Iranian claims on waterway access, with limited transits persisting despite blockades and diplomatic talks. Upcoming catalysts include further FOMC-adjacent risk assessments and any resolution milestones tied to oil revenue flows or sanctions relief.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$109,324End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating U.S.-Iran military strikes on Persian Gulf islands amid disputes over Strait of Hormuz control form the core driver of trader sentiment. Kharg Island, handling roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, has faced repeated U.S. targeting of military assets since February 2026 while oil infrastructure largely remained intact, with VLCC loadings resuming intermittently in August after prolonged halts. Hormuz, Hengam, and Farsi islands factor into IRGC positioning for potential disruptions, influencing tanker routing, dark-fleet activity, and global energy price volatility. Recent data show competing U.S. and Iranian claims on waterway access, with limited transits persisting despite blockades and diplomatic talks. Upcoming catalysts include further FOMC-adjacent risk assessments and any resolution milestones tied to oil revenue flows or sanctions relief.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$109,324End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating U.S.-Iran military strikes on Persian Gulf islands amid disputes over Strait of Hormuz control form the core driver of trader sentiment. Kharg Island, handling roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, has faced repeated U.S. targeting of military assets since February 2026 while oil infrastructure largely remained intact, with VLCC loadings resuming intermittently in August after prolonged halts. Hormuz, Hengam, and Farsi islands factor into IRGC positioning for potential disruptions, influencing tanker routing, dark-fleet activity, and global energy price volatility. Recent data show competing U.S. and Iranian claims on waterway access, with limited transits persisting despite blockades and diplomatic talks. Upcoming catalysts include further FOMC-adjacent risk assessments and any resolution milestones tied to oil revenue flows or sanctions relief.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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