Lula maintains a commanding position in Maranhão first-round polling, consistently at or above 60% against Flávio Bolsonaro near 22% and all other candidates in single digits or lower, aligning with the state's long-standing PT alignment in the Northeast and approval ratings above 60% for his administration. Recent July surveys confirm this margin, driven by local voter patterns that delivered Lula over 70% there in 2022. Trader pricing at 95.9% reflects this sustained regional strength ahead of the October 4 vote. Late developments such as a major scandal, sharp deterioration in federal approval, or an unforeseen consolidation among fragmented right-wing options could narrow the gap, though no such shifts have materialized in state-level data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Maranhão
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Maranhão
Lula 95.9%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.1%
Clariana Barao <1%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
96%
Flavio Bolsonaro
1%
Clariana Barao
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 95.9%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.1%
Clariana Barao <1%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$4,050 Vol.
96%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$504 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$467 Vol.
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$467 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$467 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$467 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$467 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$413 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$387 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$342 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$385 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$385 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$385 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Maranhão, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding position in Maranhão first-round polling, consistently at or above 60% against Flávio Bolsonaro near 22% and all other candidates in single digits or lower, aligning with the state's long-standing PT alignment in the Northeast and approval ratings above 60% for his administration. Recent July surveys confirm this margin, driven by local voter patterns that delivered Lula over 70% there in 2022. Trader pricing at 95.9% reflects this sustained regional strength ahead of the October 4 vote. Late developments such as a major scandal, sharp deterioration in federal approval, or an unforeseen consolidation among fragmented right-wing options could narrow the gap, though no such shifts have materialized in state-level data.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Maranhão, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
Volume
$9,185End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Maranhão, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding position in Maranhão first-round polling, consistently at or above 60% against Flávio Bolsonaro near 22% and all other candidates in single digits or lower, aligning with the state's long-standing PT alignment in the Northeast and approval ratings above 60% for his administration. Recent July surveys confirm this margin, driven by local voter patterns that delivered Lula over 70% there in 2022. Trader pricing at 95.9% reflects this sustained regional strength ahead of the October 4 vote. Late developments such as a major scandal, sharp deterioration in federal approval, or an unforeseen consolidation among fragmented right-wing options could narrow the gap, though no such shifts have materialized in state-level data.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Maranhão, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$9,185End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding position in Maranhão first-round polling, consistently at or above 60% against Flávio Bolsonaro near 22% and all other candidates in single digits or lower, aligning with the state's long-standing PT alignment in the Northeast and approval ratings above 60% for his administration. Recent July surveys confirm this margin, driven by local voter patterns that delivered Lula over 70% there in 2022. Trader pricing at 95.9% reflects this sustained regional strength ahead of the October 4 vote. Late developments such as a major scandal, sharp deterioration in federal approval, or an unforeseen consolidation among fragmented right-wing options could narrow the gap, though no such shifts have materialized in state-level data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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