**Mounting political pressure ahead of Morocco’s September 23, 2026 legislative elections has driven the 93% implied probability that Aziz Akhannouch will no longer serve as prime minister by year-end.** Akhannouch stepped down as leader of the ruling National Rally of Independents (RNI) in early 2026, citing term limits and announcing he would not seek a third mandate; he was succeeded by Mohamed Chaouki. This move followed reported palace signaling and removed a key institutional base for retaining the premiership. Opposition figures, including former PM Abdelilah Benkirane of the PJD, have intensified accusations of financial mismanagement, conflicts of interest in major contracts (such as the Casablanca desalination project and fuel supply deals linked to Akhannouch’s business interests), and misuse of public funds. These claims coincide with protests, criticism of economic outcomes, and demands for accountability or early government change. The governing coalition retains a parliamentary majority but faces a fragmented opposition and public distrust ahead of the vote. Under Morocco’s system, the King appoints the head of government after elections, typically from the largest party or coalition. With Akhannouch no longer heading his party and elections just weeks away, traders view continuity as unlikely; any post-election transition would almost certainly conclude well before December 31. Late developments such as coalition negotiations or royal decisions could still shift the outcome, but current dynamics strongly favor replacement.